Bitcoin mining profitability has been dropping along with the market decline. The cash flow from the mining rigs has become increasingly stunted over time, causing bitcoin miners to begin selling their holdings to cover the cost of their operations. But even as this rages on, there is a bigger issue that could threaten the recovery that BTC has made so far, which is the fact that larger miners may be forced to liquidate their holdings.
Bitcoin Miners Can’t Meet Up
Usually, bitcoin miners are known for holding the coins that they realize from their activities. Since miners are not buying the coins in the first place, it makes them the natural net sellers of bitcoin. However, their tendency to hold these coins has often seen them having to offload their bags onto suffering markets. So instead of actually selling in a bull, they tend to hold until the bull market is over and with profitability down in a bear market, are forced to sell coins to finance their operations.
Related Reading | Bitcoin Recovery Wades Off Celsius Liquidation, But For How Long?
The same is the scenario that is currently playing out in the market. With bitcoin more than 70% down from its all-time high value, miners are nowhere close to as profitable as they were back in November 2021. In the first four months of 2022, it is reported that public mining companies have had to offload about 30% of their BTC gotta from mining. This meant that the miners were having to sell more BTC than they were producing in the month of May.
Given that the market in May was significantly better than in June, it is expected that the miners would have to ramp up selling. This would likely see miners selling all of their BTC production for the month alongside the BTC that they already held prior to 2022.
BTC miners selling off holdings | Source: Arcane Research
Implications Of A Sell-Off
It is important to note that bitcoin miners are some of the largest bitcoin whales in the space. This means that their holdings have the potential of being a major market mover when dumped at the same time. These miners hold as large as 800,000 BTC collectively with public miners accounting for just 46,000 BTC of that number.
What this means is that if bitcoin miners are pushed to the wall where it triggers a mass sell-off, the price of the digital asset would have a hard time holding up against it. The massive sell-side pressure it would create would push the price further down, likely being the event that would see it touch its eventual bottom.
Declining prices forcing miners to selling BTC | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
The behaviors of the public miners can often help point to if a massive sell-off is imminent. These public companies only account for about 20% of all bitcoin mining hashrate but if they are forced to sell, then it is likely that private miners are being forced to sell.
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Short-term recovery on the part of bitcoin can push back this sell-off. However, it will only be a short-lived reprieve as energy costs are constant and some machines, namely the Antminer S9, have now become cash-flow negative. To survive the bear market, miners would simply have no choice but to dump some BTC to weather the storm.
Featured image from Newsweek, charts from Arcane Research and TradingView.com
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Bitcoin: On-chain metrics to consider in this bear cycle before going…
The crypto market has had quite a ride this month after bearish waves struck down major cryptocurrencies. The global crypto market capitalization also fell below $1 trillion leading to failing crypto institutions such as 3AC and Celsius. Bitcoin also suffered heavy drawbacks during the period.
BTC reached its lowest levels since December 2020 after dropping below $17,750. Starting the month at around $32,200, the largest-sized crypto has taken a lot of heat and at press time, it was trading at $21,000. The king coin was up by more than 2% in the past day and was just down 0.05% during the week. This was a good signal of recovery after treading through bearish downturns early in June.
Nearing market bottom
On-chain data analytics platform CryptoQuant released the latest update surrounding Bitcoin. It stated that the current BTC price is undervalued. Most on-chain indicators indicate that we are close to a market bottom for Bitcoin.
BTC’s indicator of Net Unrealized Profit/Loss was hovering around -0.06, at press time. This is the initial signal for nearing a market bottom. In the latest crypto crash, there were many addresses that recorded losses when BTC reached the 18-month bottom of $17,744.
According to CryptoQuant, the MVRV ratio has fallen significantly during the current run. At press time, it was estimated at around 0.93, suggesting an undervaluation of BTC.
There was, however, a little spike in Miner’s Position Index but it was still estimated at -0.6. This means that miners are circulating more than their daily distribution in the moving average of the YTD.
Miners have also increasingly offloaded their holdings to exchanges. This can indicate that some miners’ revenue cannot meet the break-even point.
For many investors, this is a good time to start accumulating again if they want to recoup their losses. With the regulatory proposal for digital assets already in place in the United States, there is still hope for a bullish surge in the coming months.
Bitcoin Whale Presence On Derivatives Still High, More Volatility Ahead?
On-chain data shows Bitcoin whales are transferring large amounts to derivatives exchanges right now, a signal that more volatility could be ahead for the crypto.
Bitcoin All Exchanges To Derivatives Flow Continues To Show High Value
As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, BTC whale activity on derivatives exchanges still seems to be high.
The relevant indicator here is the “all exchanges to derivatives exchanges flow,” which measures the total amount of Bitcoin moving from spot exchange wallets to derivatives.
When the value of this metric spikes up, it means whales are currently moving a large number of coins to derivatives exchanges right now.
Such a trend usually occurs around lows in the price of the crypto as whales look to get themselves long positions.
Related Reading | Bitcoin Recovery Slows Down As Whale Inflows Remain Elevated
On the other hand, low values of the indicator show whales aren’t moving much coins to derivatives at the moment. This kind of trend has historically lead to tops in the value of the coin.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin all exchanges to derivatives flow over the last couple of years:
Looks like the value of the metric has been quite high recently | Source: CryptoQuant
As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin spot to derivatives flow has spiked up recently, suggesting that whale activity is pretty high right now.
In fact, the current value of the indicator is actually the highest ever in the history of the cryptocurrency, implying there is an all-time high rate of whales on derivatives currently.
Historically, the price of the crypto has observed significant volatility whenever the metric’s value has been elevated.
Based on this trend, the quant believes that the value of the coin could still see further fluctuations in the near future.
The analyst also notes that a reduction in the all exchanges to derivatives flow will need to be there, for the volatility to die down.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $21.1k, up 4% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 27% in value.
The below chart shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days.
The value of the crypto seems to have surged up over the last couple of days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
After hitting a low of below $18k a week ago, Bitcoin has been trying to recover. So far, the crypto has managed to break above $21k again, but it’s yet unclear whether this recovery will last.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com
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I’m Tony Spilotro. Behind the pseudonym, I’m a global remote work leader with a decade of award-winning content experience and excellence. Here, I explore my newfound passions pertaining to privacy, finance, economics, politics, cryptography, property rights, and other libertarian-esque views. I am a Bitcoin evangelist, maximalist, and educator whenever I can be, helping to spread its message of freedom from government control, monetary policy mismanagement, and passing the buck – literally – to future generations. My journey from a curious retail crypto investor to a serious Bitcoin advocate, trader, and technical analyst is an unusual one, but life-changing nonetheless and has become less about money and more about a long-overdue revolution. While a firm believer in the laws governing math and science, I am profoundly fascinated by the impact of astrology and astronomy including moon and solar cycles and planetary alignment and their ability to influence and potentially predict markets. It hasn’t yet clicked for me as to how to put anything to use, but I consider it my current rabbit hole I can’t yet dig out of. My perspective of growing up alongside the internet, the dot com era, the Great Recession, and roots in video games collecting coins and rare items caused Bitcoin to immediately make sense to me. Through all of these lenses, I seek to produce content that is educational and entertaining, and I thank you sincerely for taking the time to read what I have to say. Please follow me on Twitter at @tonyspilotroBTC and feel free to drop me a line if you would like to work together.
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