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Bitcoin Price Consolidates, Why 100 SMA Could Start A Decent Recovery

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Bitcoin Price Consolidates, Why 100 SMA Could Start A Decent Recovery

Bitcoin price remained stable above the $16,000 support zone. BTC could start a decent recovery wave if there is a clear move above the 100 hourly SMA.

  • Bitcoin remained well bid above the $16,000 and $15,800 support levels.
  • The price is trading below $17,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
  • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $16,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair could start a recovery wave if it clears the $17,000 resistance zone.

Bitcoin Price Faces Hurdles

Bitcoin price reacted to the downside once again after it failed to clear the $17,200 zone. BTC declined below the $17,000 and $16,500 levels. It even spiked below the $16,200 level.

However, the bulls were active above the $16,000 support zone. A low was formed near $16,164 and the price started a slow increase. There was a move above the $16,400 and $16,500 levels. The price cleared the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $17,149 swing high to $16,154 low.

Bitcoin price is now trading below $17,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. It is testing the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $17,149 swing high to $16,154 low.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the $16,800 level. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $16,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair, and the 100 hourly simple moving average. A clear move above the $17,000 resistance might push the price further higher.

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Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The next major resistance is near $17,200, above which the price could test the $17,750 zone. Any more gains might send the price towards the $18,000 resistance zone.

Fresh Decline in BTC?

If bitcoin fails to start a recovery wave above the $17,000 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. An immediate support on the downside is near the $16,400 level.

The next major support is near the $16,150 zone. A clear move below the $16,150 support might push the price further lower. In this case, the price may perhaps decline towards the $15,550 support zone.

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Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $16,150, followed by $15,550.

Major Resistance Levels – $16,800, $17,000 and $17,500.

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Antminer S19 Pro+ Hyd.

Data Shows There’s No Profits Left For Bitcoin Miners That Can’t Obtain Cheap Electricity, Run Efficient Mining Rigs

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Data Shows There’s No Profits Left For Bitcoin Miners That Can’t Obtain Cheap Electricity, Run Efficient Mining Rigs

During the last few weeks bitcoin’s cost of production has been higher than the leading crypto asset’s spot market value and in turn, this has put massive pressure on bitcoin miners. On Nov. 30, 2022, statistics show if miners paying for electricity pay roughly $0.12 per kilowatt hour (kWh), only three application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) mining rigs are profitable. At a rate of $0.07 per kWh, profits begin to increase and data shows 16 different ASIC bitcoin mining devices are profitable with electrical costs at that rate.

At $0.12 per Kilowatt Hour, Only 3 ASIC Miners Gather Profit Using Today’s Bitcoin Exchange Rate

Bitcoin miners are feeling the pain of an extremely high difficulty rating and much lower bitcoin prices than a year ago today. Data from macromicro.me indicates that the cost of bitcoin production ($19,356 per unit) is a lot higher than the spot market value ($16,877 per unit). This means bitcoin miners need to obtain the cheapest electricity they can find on planet earth, and operate with the most efficient bitcoin mining devices on the market today.

Metrics show the world average price for electricity in 2022 is $0.143 per kWh and in specific regions around the world, average businesses and households can spend less than $0.10 per kWh, and some areas as low as $0.01 per kWh. Countries that enjoy cheap electricity rates lower than a U.S. nickel per kWh include Qatar, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Kyrgyzstan, Cuba, Libya, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan.

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Top ASIC bitcoin miners on Nov. 30, 2022, at $0.07 per kWh and bitcoin prices at $16,877 per unit.

While cheap electricity is good for bitcoin miners, they also need the most effective ASIC mining units on the market. Statistics show that only three ASIC miners are profitable if the operation has to pay $0.12 per kWh. The machines that still profit under this electricity cost ($0.12 per kWh) include the Bitmain Antminer S19 XP Hyd. which boasts 255 terahash per second (TH/s), the Antminer S19 XP (140 TH/s), and the Antminer S19 Pro+ Hyd. (198 TH/s).

If the electrical cost is slashed down to $0.07 per kWh, 16 different SHA256-compatible ASIC machines will see a profit, according to data collected by asicminervalue.com. At $0.07 per kWh, a Bitmain Antminer S19j (90 TH/s) is estimated to produce $0.21 per day in profit. If electrical costs are cut down even lower at $0.05 per kWh, roughly 43 ASIC bitcoin mining rigs will see a profit.

At that rate ($0.05 per kWh), an Antminer S19 XP Hyd. will get an estimated $9.69 per day, while the Ebang Ebit E12+ with 50 TH/s will produce $0.15 per day in profits, according to asicminervalue.com. Furthermore, SHA256 ASIC machines are the fourth most profitable proof-of-work (PoW) devices behind algorithms like Kadena, Scrypt, and Eaglesong.

At $0.05 per kWh, PoW ASIC machines that are compatible with those three algorithms can make an estimated $20.35 to $42.64 per day in profits depending on the hashrate output of the specific rig. The most dominant two brands on the market today, in terms of high-powered, next-generation bitcoin miners, include Bitmain’s Antminer series and Microbt’s Whatsminer series.

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Antminer S19 Pro+ Hyd., antminers, ASIC machines, Asicminervalue.com, Bitcoin, Bitcoin (BTC), Bitcoin Miners, Bitcoin mining, Bitmain, Bitmain’s Antminer, BTC Mining, BTC Mining Rigs, compatible, cuba, data, Eaglesong, electric, Electricity, Hashpower, Hashrate, Iran, kadena, kilowatt-hour, KWh, Kyrgyzstan, Libya, metrics, Microbt’s Whatsminer, mining bitcoin, Mining BTC, mining metrics, PoW, qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Scrypt, SHA256, Stats, Terahash, Venezuela

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What do you think about the electrical costs bitcoin miners pay and the realized profits they see after obtaining cheap electricity and leveraging high-powered, next-generation ASIC mining rigs? Let us know what you think about this subject in the comments section below.

Jamie Redman

Jamie Redman is the News Lead at Bitcoin.com News and a financial tech journalist living in Florida. Redman has been an active member of the cryptocurrency community since 2011. He has a passion for Bitcoin, open-source code, and decentralized applications. Since September 2015, Redman has written more than 6,000 articles for Bitcoin.com News about the disruptive protocols emerging today.

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Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons, editorial photo credit: asicminervalue.com

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not a direct offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation or endorsement of any products, services, or companies. Bitcoin.com does not provide investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.

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"Bitcoin’s Last Stand"

ECB Blog Post Insists This Is ‘Bitcoin’s Last Stand,’ Officials Claim BTC Is Headed Toward ‘Irrelevance’

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ECB Blog Post Insists This Is ‘Bitcoin’s Last Stand,’ Officials Claim BTC Is Headed Toward ‘Irrelevance’

On Wednesday, Nov. 30, 2022, a blog post published by the European Central Bank (ECB) discusses bitcoin and the authors Ulrich Bindseil and Jürgen Schaaf seem to believe its “bitcoin’s last stand.” The ECB authors further say that while bitcoin’s price has consolidated and stabilized, the central bank officials remarked that “it is an artificially induced last gasp before the road to irrelevance.”

Members of Europe’s Central Bank Believe They Predicted Bitcoin Would Be Heading Toward ‘Irrelevance’ Before FTX Went Bust

Two members of Europe’s central bank, Ulrich Bindseil, the director general of the ECB’s market infrastructure and payments division, and Jürgen Schaaf, an advisor to the ECB’s payments sector, published a blog post about the leading crypto asset bitcoin (BTC).

The ECB blog post is called “Bitcoin’s Last Stand,” and the writers claim the crypto asset is becoming irrelevant. Bindseil and Schaaf explain that BTC’s price has dropped 76% lower than the $69K all-time high, and the authors have noticed bitcoin proponents think BTC is taking a “breather on the way to new heights.”

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The ECB authors do not believe this will be the case this time around. “More likely, however, it is an artificially induced last gasp before the road to irrelevance,” the ECB blog post’s authors insist. “And this was already foreseeable before FTX went bust and sent the bitcoin price to well below USD16,000.”

The members of the European Central Bank further opine that “bitcoin has never been used to any significant extent for legal real-world transactions.” The ECB’s blog post adds:

Bitcoin is also not suitable as an investment. It does not generate cash flow (like real estate) or dividends (like equities), cannot be used productively (like commodities) or provide social benefits (like gold). The market valuation of Bitcoin is therefore based purely on speculation.

ECB Officials Say Banks That Promote Bitcoin Bear ‘Reputational Risk,’ Blog Post Insists Regulation Does Not Represent ‘Approval’

The authors don’t necessarily use the terms, but Bindseil and Schaaf relate bitcoin to a Ponzi or pyramid scheme, as the authors stress that “speculative bubbles rely on new money flowing in.”

“Big Bitcoin investors have the strongest incentives to keep the euphoria going,” the blog post’s writers insist. While regulatory policy has grown around cryptocurrency assets, the two ECB officials believe that “regulation can be misunderstood as approval.” Bindseil and Schaaf are not too keen on the idea that the crypto space should be allowed to innovate “at all costs.”

Bitcoin’s innovative value, the ECB authors say has been very little compared to the risks that allegedly outweigh innovation. The ECB paper states:

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Firstly, these technologies have so far created limited value for society – no matter how great the expectations for the future. Secondly, the use of a promising technology is not a sufficient condition for an added value of a product based on it.

Lastly, the central bank executives think that banks that promote bitcoin will bear reputational risk. The ECB members say that because they believe bitcoin is not a suitable investment nor a payment system, “it should be treated as neither in regulatory terms and thus should not be legitimised.”

Bindseil’s and Schaaf’s blog post is very similar to the opinions held by people like Peter Schiff, Charlie Munger, and the hundreds of so-called bitcoin obituaries published over the years. Despite the ECB opinion post, there are many individuals, academic papers, and companies that wholeheartedly disagree with the two central bank executives.

The global blockchain leader at EY, Paul Brody, recently said that this crypto winter is a “much milder crypto winter than the last one.” Brody also said that crypto price fluctuations are impacting the industry’s growth a lot less these days. “For the first time ever, price ups and downs don’t have that big of an impact on the long-term growth of the industry,” Brody opined.

Furthermore, a paper published by Matthew Ferranti, a Harvard Ph.D. candidate in economics, says that banks should hold a little bitcoin. Ferranti said that even central banks should consider holding bitcoin, and more specifically, central banks struggling with financial sanctions depending on the financial institution’s accessibility to gold reserves.

Tags in this story

“Bitcoin’s Last Stand”, approval, Bitcoin, Bitcoin (BTC), Bitcoin Obituaries, Blog Post, BTC, Charlie Munger, ECB, ECB director general payments, ECB members, ECB officials, EU, Europe’s central bank, European Central Bank, EY exec, Harvard paper, investment, Jürgen Schaaf, Matthew Ferranti, not suitable, opinion piece, Paul Brody, payments system, Peter Schiff, Regulation, Ulrich Bindseil

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What do you think about the ECB’s blog post about Bitcoin’s so-called ‘last stand?’ Do you agree with the officials from Europe’s central bank? Let us know your thoughts about this subject in the comments section below.

Jamie Redman

Jamie Redman is the News Lead at Bitcoin.com News and a financial tech journalist living in Florida. Redman has been an active member of the cryptocurrency community since 2011. He has a passion for Bitcoin, open-source code, and decentralized applications. Since September 2015, Redman has written more than 6,000 articles for Bitcoin.com News about the disruptive protocols emerging today.

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Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not a direct offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation or endorsement of any products, services, or companies. Bitcoin.com does not provide investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.

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Bitcoin Bearish Signal: NVT Golden Cross Enters Sell Zone

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Bitcoin Bearish Signal: NVT Golden Cross Enters Sell Zone

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin NVT golden cross has now entered into the “sell” zone, something that could be bearish for the price of the crypto.

Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Surges, Now Has A Value Of 2.44

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, this sell signal might lead to BTC’s price dropping in the next ten days.

The “Network Value to Transactions ratio” (NVT ratio) is an indicator that’s defined as the market cap divided by the transacted volume in a specific period.

What this metric tells us is how the value of Bitcoin currently compares with the investors’ ability to transact coins, and thus if the crypto is undervalued or overvalued right now.

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One application of this ratio is through the NVT golden cross, which compares the short-term (10-day moving average) and the long-term (30-day moving average) trends in NVT to indicate tops and bottoms in the crypto’s price.

Historically, the metric’s value being higher than 2.2 has usually been a signal to sell, while it being less than -1.6 has been a bullish sign.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NVT golden cross over the last year:

The value of the metric seems to have sharply gone up in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant

As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin NVT golden cross has observed some sharp uptrend recently.

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The indicator now has a value of 2.44, meaning it has exceeded the 2.20 level that has historically implied sell signals.

During late May, the metric saw a similar surge and rose to a peak value of 2.77. When the following month rolled around, BTC went through a huge crash from $30k to $20k.

Since the crypto is once again overpriced according to the NVT golden cross, it’s possible the coin may go through more drawdown in the coming days.

However, as the metric’s value is still lower than what it was at the high preceding the June crash, there might be potential for it to rise further, before the actual sell signal is in.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $16.8k, up 2% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 19% in value.

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Below is a chart that shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days.

Looks like the value of the crypto has shot up during the last couple of days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Mark Basarab on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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