Bitcoin sell-offs have been the order of the day since the weekend. This has translated to ever-decreasing prices for the digital asset. Another avenue where this has had an effect has been the miner fee revenues. Usually, these transaction fee revenues have been on the low side. But with the recent sell-offs triggering a surge in daily transaction volumes, the result has been more earnings for miners in terms of transaction fees.
Bitcoin Daily Revenues Plummet
Even though there has been a surge in miner fee revenues, the daily miner revenues have not gone up with it. Even with the increased on-chain activity, revenues have fallen short of the figures recorded for the previous week.
Related Reading | Crypto Liquidations Reach $1 Billion As Sentiment Falls To 10-Month Lows
The increased transaction volume has been a direct result of the high volatility that has been recorded in the market. As always, when volatility is this high, investors are usually moving their coins, mostly to sell off, to avoid taking more losses in the market. This saw daily transaction volume grow as high as 63.48% in the space of a week. The average transaction value had no doubt had the highest impact on this, which had increased by 66.38% in the same time period.
BTC hashrate on the rise | Source: Arcane Research
Daily transaction volume is now sitting at $8.3 billion, up from $5.06 billion the previous week. Daily miner revenues are down 9.17% from the prior week’s $37.28 billion to be sitting at $33.86 billion for the last week.
Fees per day also saw a 28.81% increase. What this resulted in was growth from $421,137 to $542,486. This puts the percentage of transaction fees making up miner revenues at 1.6%, one of the highest levels ever recorded in 2022.
Mining Difficulty On The Rise
The block production rate from miners has been on the rise for the last couple of weeks. However, with the last week, it had begun to crumble. It fell 2.15% from its 6.36 block production rate per hour for the prior seven days to now be sitting at a 6.23 block production rate for last week.
BTC crashes below $30,000 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Nevertheless, the block production rate for bitcoin miners is still high, as the previous target had been a block production rate of 6 per hour. With such a high block production rate, it is expected that the mining difficulty is set to go up another 4% to 5% by Wednesday.
Related Reading | Market Downtrend Trigger Bitcoin Inflows From Institutional Investors
Bitcoin’s hashrate continues to remain high and has not been negatively impacted by the recent market crash. Average transactions per block are down for the past week though from 1,806 to 1,774, accounting for a 1.75% decrease.
Featured image from Business Today, charts from Arcane Research and TradingView.com
TA: Bitcoin Price Moves Higher In Range, $30.6K Still Presents Resistance
Bitcoin remained strong above the $28,500 support against the US Dollar. BTC is rising, but it must clear $28,500 to move into a positive zone.
- Bitcoin started a fresh increase after it tested the $28,500 support zone.
- The price is now trading above the $29,500 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
- There was break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $29,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
- The pair could continue to move higher towards the key $30,600 resistance zone.
Bitcoin Price Forms Triple Bottom
Bitcoin price extended decline below the $29,500 support zone. However, the bulls were active near the main $28,500 support zone.
A fresh base was formed near $28,600 and the price started a fresh increase. There was a clear move above the $29,200 and $29,500 resistance levels. The price surpassed the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $30,630 swing high to $28,635 low.
Besides, there was break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $29,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin price is now trading above the $29,500 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $30,160 level. It is near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $30,630 swing high to $28,635 low. The next major resistance is near the $30,600 level. A clear move above the $30,600 resistance level might start a steady increase. In the stated case, the price may perhaps clear the $31,200 resistance zone.
Fresh Decline in BTC?
If bitcoin fails to clear the $30,600 resistance zone, it could start another decline. An immediate support on the downside is near the $29,600 level.
The first major support is near the $29,500 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. A downside break below the $29,500 support might send the price further lower. The main support is still near the $28,500 level, where the bulls are likely to take a strong stand.
Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now well above the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $29,500, followed by $28,500.
Major Resistance Levels – $30,150, $30,500 and $30,600.
Bitcoin Rejects Downside At $29k, Here’s Why This Is Good
Today’s Bitcoin price analysis is positive, as a dip to $29,000 was met with solid support and rejection, indicating that additional downside is unlikely. As a result, BTC/USD is expected to rise further in the next days, most likely above the $31,000 resistance level.
Naturally, the psychological price of $30,000 for Bitcoin implies a solid purchase zone. We’ll look at why Bitcoin’s recent consolidation around $30,000 is a promising sign of future price increases.
Bitcoin Fall 57% From ATH
Bitcoin prices have fallen from a high of $69,600 to a current level of $29,350. The entire cryptocurrency market was destroyed by this 57 percent price decrease. As a result of the decreasing prices, a snowball effect began to occur, causing other crypto projects to be hit and sink even more.
The price range of $30,000 for Bitcoin is critical. Many large corporations bought Bitcoins at that price. Furthermore, as shown in Figure 2, Bitcoin prices historically consolidated around those precise positions before beginning an advance.
BTC/USD 1-day chart showing the consolidation area. Source: TradingView
For more than a week, bitcoin has been trading sideways, with the $31,000 mark acting as solid resistance. Meanwhile, significant support has been established at $29,000, signaling a clear consolidation region that must be overcome before the market can continue to develop.
The previous high was set at the same level as the previous low, signaling market hesitation. As a result, the recent $29,000 test could lead to another retest of the resistance.
Related Reading | Eight Consecutive Red Closes: Is Bitcoin Headed For A Recovery?
Will Consolidation occur?
If BTC prices happen to drop below $28,000 again, the next support area would be around $20,000. However, it is more likely that prices will increase from this Bitcoin price consolidation phase. The first target is around $35,000, or a 17% increase in prices. After that, prices should target the next psychological price of $40,000. From there, we might see a slight adjustment lower, but in the long term, prices should break higher. This would mark the official start of the uptrend.
In order for bitcoin’s price to establish a foothold at the bottom in the short term, according to Josh Olszewicz, head of research at investment management Valkyrie, volatility must reduce.
“We can look at things like the 200-week moving average, which is around $22,000. We can look at realized price, which is the average price of coins that have moved on-chain, which is around $23,800,” Olszewicz said on CoinDesk TV’s “First Mover” program. “This [movement to hit bottom] will probably take at least all of Q3, perhaps Q4 as well, if it were to happen this year.”
Other variables, like as the US Federal Reserve boosting interest rates, are also influencing bitcoin’s market performance, according to Olszewicz.
He speculated that institutional investors may be in the forefront of the downturn. The average size of on-chain transactions, according to Olszewicz, is in the tens of thousands of BTC.
Nonetheless, according to Olszewicz, ordinary traders continue to influence market movement more than institutional investors. Those learning about cryptocurrencies are now jumping in during this bear market to “test the waters” and “see if they can survive,” according to him.
Suggested Reading | Ripple (XRP) Plunges To $0.43 With Bears In Full Swing
Featured image from iStock photo, chart from TradingView.com
Investors May Expect Downside For Bitcoin And Ethereum Market For The Next 3 Months
The crypto markets have accepted the depegging of UST and the subsequent downward spiral of LUNA, both of which impacted the price of Bitcoin and the entire digital asset spectrum. According to a recent report by the Glassnode team, the Bitcoin market has been trading lower for eight weeks, making it the ‘longest continuous series of red weekly candles in history.’
Even Ethereum, the most popular altcoin, painted a similar picture. Bearish fluctuations damage returns and profit margins directly or indirectly.
To make matters worse, derivative markets forecast shows more declines in the coming three to six months.
Derivative Markets Hint At More Pain For Bitcoin
According to derivative markets, the prognosis for the next three to six months remains fearful of further fall. On-chain, the report stated that blockspace demand for Ethereum and Bitcoin has dropped to multi-year lows, and the rate of ETH burning via EIP1559 has reached an all-time low.
Glassnode calculated that the demand side will continue to face headwinds due to poor price performance, uncertain derivatives pricing, and extremely low demand for block-space on both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The report explains:
Looking on-chain, we can see that both Ethereum and Bitcoin blockspace demand has fallen to multi-year lows, and the rate of burning of ETH via EIP1559 is now at an all-time-low.
Coupling poor price performance, fearful derivatives pricing, and exceedingly lacklustre demand for block-space on both Bitcoin and Ethereum, we can deduce that the demand side is likely to continue seeing headwinds.
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum’s price performance over the last 12 months has been disappointing. Long-term CAGR rates for Bitcoin and Ethereum have been impacted as a result of this.
BTC, the largest cryptocurrency, moved in a roughly 4-year bull/bear cycle, which was frequently accompanied with halving events. When looking at long-term returns, the CAGR has dropped from almost 200 percent in 2015 to less than 50 percent as of this writing.
Related Reading | New Data Shows China Still Controls 21% Of The Global Bitcoin Mining Hashrate
Furthermore, Bitcoin had a negative 30% return over the short term, implying that it corrected by 1% every day on average. This negative return for Bitcoin is very similar to prior bear market cycles.
When it comes to ETH, the altcoin performed far worse than BTC. Ethereum’s monthly return profile revealed a depressing picture of -34.9 percent. Ethereum likewise appears to be seeing diminishing rewards in the long run.
Furthermore, during the previous 12 months, the 4-year CAGR for both assets has dropped from 100% to only 36% for BTC. Also, ETH is up 28 percent per year, emphasizing the severity of this bear.
To make matters worse, the derivative market warned of future market declines. Near-term uncertainty and downside risk continue to be priced into options markets, particularly over the next three to six months. In reality, during the market sell-off last week, implied volatility increased significantly.
Total crypto market cap stands at $1.2 Trillion. Source: TradingView
The Glassnode analysis concluded by stating that the present bear market has taken its toll on crypto traders and investors. Furthermore, the Glassnode team emphasized that downturn markets frequently worsen before improving. However, ‘bear markets do have a tendency of ending’ and ‘bear markets author the bull that follows,’ so there is some light at the end of the tunnel.
Related Reading | TA: Bitcoin Price Stuck In Key Range, Why Dips Might Be Limited
Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from Glassnode, and TradingView.com
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