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How Low Will Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices Go? 3 Experts Give Us The Numbers

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How Low Will Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices Go? 3 Experts Give Us The Numbers

Courtesy of Wendy O, Kavita Gupta, and Kiana Danial

These experts says crypto prices could drop even further. Left to right: Wendy O, Kavita Gupta, Kiana Danial.

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It’s been a bad week for the crypto market. For investors, the big question is how low will crypto prices go?

After the prices of bitcoin, ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies saw big drops this week, several experts say it could get even worse amid a broader investor sell-off of risky assets. The price of bitcoin fell more than 30% over the last week to just under $21,000, and Ethereum followed a similar trend. The second-largest crypto dropped close to $1,000 Thursday. 

The stock market rallied Wednesday afternoon after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points, the largest increase since 1994. But the crypto market didn’t follow, which could be “a troubling sign for some investors,” according to Edward Moya, a senior market analyst at OANDA.

“Bitcoin was unable to muster up a rally despite a broad rally on Wall Street following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. If a big rally on Wall Street can’t excite crypto traders, bitcoin could be in trouble,” Moya says. “The $20,000 level is holding, but it looks like no one wants to jump back in on the crypto trade.”

Many experts are warning this may be the beginning of a “crypto winter,” an extended period when prices fall and remain low, such as they did between early 2018 and mid-2020. If bitcoin drops below $20,000, several experts predict it could go far lower. 

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Having fallen more than 30% over the last week, investors are wondering where the bottom may be for bitcoin as well as other digital assets.

How Low Will Bitcoin and Ethereum Go? 

Bitcoin first slipped below $30,000 last week, declining steadily to $25,000 by Sunday before making a substantial fall to $21,000 on Monday. The largest crypto slid down further to $20,000 on Wednesday and continued to hover near that range Thursday. Ethereum reacted similarly, falling as much as 30% over the last week to a new 18-month low of $1,000. 

As the two most well-known cryptocurrencies on the market continue to tumble, you may be wondering just how low bitcoin and ethereum could go and whether you should buy the dip. While it’s impossible to say with certainty, many crypto experts have a sense of where bitcoin and ethereum could bottom out based on technical charts and historical data. Here’s how low bitcoin and ethereum prices could go in the coming weeks or months, according to these three experts:

Kiana Danial

Point of view: Entrepreneur and author of “Cryptocurrency Investing for Dummies”

Bottom projection: Bitcoin could go as low as $11,000

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Why: The crypto market is in the midst of a bearish sentiment cycle as investors are largely retreating from risky assets. Several factors are driving negative sentiment in the stock and crypto markets right now including inflation, a shaky stock market, rising interest rates, and recession fears. As a result, bitcoin has dropped by nearly 70% from its all-time high of $68,000, breaking below several key technical levels over the last few weeks. Crypto prices could continue to tumble if the shaky macroenvironment doesn’t improve in the near term.

Wendy O

Point of view: Crypto expert and educator

Bottom projection: Ethereum could fall to $750

Why: The price of Ethereum now is almost equal to its price at the start of 2021. Generally, in bear markets, ethereum and bitcoin can drop up to 85%, says O. Ethereum hit an all-time high in November 2021 at roughly $4,800, so an 85% correction would lead to around $750. However, it’s not going to be a straight shot down. According to O’s technical analysis, there are several resistance levels at $1,700 and $1,885, so we’ll likely see a volatile reversal upward before ethereum completely bottoms out.

Kavita Gupta

Point of view: Venture capitalist and founder of Delta Blockchain Fund

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Bottom projection: Bitcoin could drop to $14,000, and ethereum could fall to $500

Why: Crypto winter is here, and we’re unlikely to see a meaningful rally for the next 12 to 18 months. Fears of a recession are pushing investors to liquidate risky assets, and the collapse of Luna and TerraUSD last month and lender Celsius pausing withdrawals this week have further eroded confidence in the space. If the broader market sell-off deepens, Gupta expects there will be more collapses in the crypto space. That, in turn, could further erode investor confidence in the crypto market and prices could fall even lower.

This Week’s Crypto Crash: Should You Buy The Dip?

There’s never a “perfect” time to start investing as it’s impossible to time the market. But experts say now could be a good time to get in the market while prices are low — after you’ve assessed your risk tolerance (crypto is highly speculative) and covered other financial priorities, like saving for an emergency and investing in a more traditional retirement fund. Potential investors looking to buy into this week’s dip should understand that fluctuations are par for the course, and be prepared for this kind of volatility going forward.  

Even if you invest now, with prices relatively low, be prepared for them to fall even more. That’s why it’s important to only put in what you’re comfortable with losing. Experts generally recommend allocating less than 5% of your portfolio to crypto investments.

If you’re planning to buy the dip, you may be wondering which cryptocurrencies to invest in. Though the potential growth of ethereum and bitcoin are highly speculative, they are still among the best cryptos you can invest in right now, according to NextAdvisor’s Investability Score and experts we’ve spoken to over the last year. Bitcoin and ethereum are the two largest cryptocurrencies by market cap and exchange volume, making them good options if you are just starting a crypto investment journey.

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Bitcoin has the highest score of all cryptocurrencies, with ethereum right behind. Here’s how our score shakes out for 10 cryptocurrencies that are consistently among the top by market cap, excluding stablecoins, for reference:

COIN NEXTADVISOR INVESTABILITY SCORE
Bitcoin (BTC) 81/100
Ethereum (ETH) 69/100
Solana (SOL) 57/100
Cardano (ADA) 55/100
Polkadot (DOT) 54/100
Avalanche (AVAX) 53/100
TRON (TRX) 52/100
XRP (XRP) 51/100
Binance Coin (BNB) 50/100
Dogecoin (DOGE) 39/100
Updated June 16, 2022

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Bitcoin: On-chain metrics to consider in this bear cycle before going…

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Bitcoin: On-chain metrics to consider in this bear cycle before going…

The crypto market has had quite a ride this month after bearish waves struck down major cryptocurrencies. The global crypto market capitalization also fell below $1 trillion leading to failing crypto institutions such as 3AC and Celsius. Bitcoin also suffered heavy drawbacks during the period.

BTC reached its lowest levels since December 2020 after dropping below $17,750. Starting the month at around $32,200, the largest-sized crypto has taken a lot of heat and at press time, it was trading at $21,000. The king coin was up by more than 2% in the past day and was just down 0.05% during the week. This was a good signal of recovery after treading through bearish downturns early in June.

Nearing market bottom

On-chain data analytics platform CryptoQuant released the latest update surrounding Bitcoin. It stated that the current BTC price is undervalued. Most on-chain indicators indicate that we are close to a market bottom for Bitcoin.

BTC’s indicator of Net Unrealized Profit/Loss was hovering around -0.06, at press time. This is the initial signal for nearing a market bottom. In the latest crypto crash, there were many addresses that recorded losses when BTC reached the 18-month bottom of $17,744.

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Source: CryptoQuant

According to CryptoQuant, the MVRV ratio has fallen significantly during the current run. At press time, it was estimated at around 0.93, suggesting an undervaluation of BTC.

Source: CryptoQuant

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There was, however, a little spike in Miner’s Position Index but it was still estimated at -0.6. This means that miners are circulating more than their daily distribution in the moving average of the YTD.

Miners have also increasingly offloaded their holdings to exchanges. This can indicate that some miners’ revenue cannot meet the break-even point.

Source: CryptoQuant

For many investors, this is a good time to start accumulating again if they want to recoup their losses. With the regulatory proposal for digital assets already in place in the United States, there is still hope for a bullish surge in the coming months.

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Kanav is a journalist at AMBCrypto. He has a Masters in Media and International Conflict and is interested in areas of digital society, crypto developments in the political sphere and the socio-cultural impact of a crypto-society.

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Bitcoin [BTC]: Assessing how deep are we into the bear market

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Bitcoin [BTC]: Assessing how deep are we into the bear market

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency has had its fair share of bear markets experiences in the past. But, after every bear cycle, the king coin has managed to recover successfully. Now, the question is- Can BTC repeat the same this time around?

Highlighting the norms

Bitcoin, at press time, circulated in the $20k to $21k range after suffering massive sell-offs. Some harsh liquidation scenarios even recorded figures in billions. These conditions have directly impacted BTC’s price as it led to more drawdowns.

The Bitcoin drawdown from ATH has reached 73.3%, compared to previous bear market lows of between 75% and 84% in the graph. But, as past bore the witness, BTC has reclaimed a top spot every time after witnessing a bearish run.

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Source: Glassnode

According to Glassnode, past all-time high (ATH) duration stood at 435 days from the Apr-2021 ATH and 227 days from the Nov-2021 ATH. This firmly placed the current bear within historical bear norms.

That being said, the divergence between BTC’s address activity and price marked the most optimistic level since December 2020. Consider this- the number of unique addresses interacting on the network didn’t fall as much as it may seem after a 70% price retracement since November.

Source: Santiment

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The divergence between active addresses and price was last this high in December 2020. Thus, indicating that a price increase is possible. In addition, Bitcoin recorded significant whale transactions as well. It merely indicates that the major stakeholders might be keen on the token despite the FUD and inflation.

Whalin’ with caution

Furthermore, the largest Bitcoin holders on the blockchain added 16% more coins to their holdings over the last 30 days. At press time, the entity possessed over 776,000 BTC worth over $16 billion.

Source: ITB

This, indeed, could inject some optimism during such uncertain times. Following this development, number of addresses holding 0.1+ BTC saw an uptick as well. The metric on Glassnode reached an ATH of 3,615,634.

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Shubham is a full-time journalist at AMBCrypto. A Master’s graduate in Accounting and Finance, Shubham’s writings mainly focus on crypto-regulations across the United States and Europe. Also, a die-hard Chelsea fan #KTBFFH.

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Bitcoin Whale Presence On Derivatives Still High, More Volatility Ahead?

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Bitcoin Whale Presence On Derivatives Still High, More Volatility Ahead?

On-chain data shows Bitcoin whales are transferring large amounts to derivatives exchanges right now, a signal that more volatility could be ahead for the crypto.

Bitcoin All Exchanges To Derivatives Flow Continues To Show High Value

As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, BTC whale activity on derivatives exchanges still seems to be high.

The relevant indicator here is the “all exchanges to derivatives exchanges flow,” which measures the total amount of Bitcoin moving from spot exchange wallets to derivatives.

When the value of this metric spikes up, it means whales are currently moving a large number of coins to derivatives exchanges right now.

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Such a trend usually occurs around lows in the price of the crypto as whales look to get themselves long positions.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Recovery Slows Down As Whale Inflows Remain Elevated

On the other hand, low values of the indicator show whales aren’t moving much coins to derivatives at the moment. This kind of trend has historically lead to tops in the value of the coin.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin all exchanges to derivatives flow over the last couple of years:

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Looks like the value of the metric has been quite high recently | Source: CryptoQuant

As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin spot to derivatives flow has spiked up recently, suggesting that whale activity is pretty high right now.

In fact, the current value of the indicator is actually the highest ever in the history of the cryptocurrency, implying there is an all-time high rate of whales on derivatives currently.

Related Reading | Bitcoin May Have Hit Bottom According to These Indicators, BTC Targets $23K?

Historically, the price of the crypto has observed significant volatility whenever the metric’s value has been elevated.

Based on this trend, the quant believes that the value of the coin could still see further fluctuations in the near future.

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The analyst also notes that a reduction in the all exchanges to derivatives flow will need to be there, for the volatility to die down.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $21.1k, up 4% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 27% in value.

The below chart shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days.

The value of the crypto seems to have surged up over the last couple of days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

After hitting a low of below $18k a week ago, Bitcoin has been trying to recover. So far, the crypto has managed to break above $21k again, but it’s yet unclear whether this recovery will last.

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Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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