Bitcoin failed to recover above $23,000 against the US Dollar. BTC started a fresh decline and remains at a risk of a move below the $20,000 support.
- Bitcoin failed to climb above $23,000 and started a fresh decline.
- The price is now trading below the $22,000 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
- There is a new connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near $20,850 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
- The pair remains at a risk of a move below the $20,000 support zone in the near term.
Bitcoin Price Revisits $20K
Bitcoin price attempted a fresh increase above the $22,000 level. However, the bears were active near the $22,800 and $23,000 levels. A high was formed near $22,950 and the price started a fresh decline.
There was a clear move below the $21,500 level and the price settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average. The price even declined below the $21,000 level and traded close to the $20,000 support zone. A low was formed near $20,200 and the price is now attempting an upside correction.
There was a move above the $20,500 resistance level. Bitcoin is now testing the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $22,950 high to $20,200 low.
There is also a new connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near $20,850 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $21,000 level. The first major resistance is near the $21,550 level.
Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $22,950 high to $20,200 low is also near the $21,550 level. Any more gains might send the price towards the $22,300 level or the 100 hourly simple moving average. The main resistance is still near the $23,000 level.
Fresh Decline in BTC?
If bitcoin fails to clear the $22,000 resistance zone and the trend line, it could start a fresh decline. An immediate support on the downside is near the $20,200 level.
The next major support is near the $20,000 level. A downside break below the $20,000 support could spark a sharp decline. In the stated case, the price could test $18,800.
Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $20,200, followed by $20,000.
Major Resistance Levels – $21,550, $22,300 and $23,000.
Bitcoin: On-chain metrics to consider in this bear cycle before going…
The crypto market has had quite a ride this month after bearish waves struck down major cryptocurrencies. The global crypto market capitalization also fell below $1 trillion leading to failing crypto institutions such as 3AC and Celsius. Bitcoin also suffered heavy drawbacks during the period.
BTC reached its lowest levels since December 2020 after dropping below $17,750. Starting the month at around $32,200, the largest-sized crypto has taken a lot of heat and at press time, it was trading at $21,000. The king coin was up by more than 2% in the past day and was just down 0.05% during the week. This was a good signal of recovery after treading through bearish downturns early in June.
Nearing market bottom
On-chain data analytics platform CryptoQuant released the latest update surrounding Bitcoin. It stated that the current BTC price is undervalued. Most on-chain indicators indicate that we are close to a market bottom for Bitcoin.
BTC’s indicator of Net Unrealized Profit/Loss was hovering around -0.06, at press time. This is the initial signal for nearing a market bottom. In the latest crypto crash, there were many addresses that recorded losses when BTC reached the 18-month bottom of $17,744.
According to CryptoQuant, the MVRV ratio has fallen significantly during the current run. At press time, it was estimated at around 0.93, suggesting an undervaluation of BTC.
There was, however, a little spike in Miner’s Position Index but it was still estimated at -0.6. This means that miners are circulating more than their daily distribution in the moving average of the YTD.
Miners have also increasingly offloaded their holdings to exchanges. This can indicate that some miners’ revenue cannot meet the break-even point.
For many investors, this is a good time to start accumulating again if they want to recoup their losses. With the regulatory proposal for digital assets already in place in the United States, there is still hope for a bullish surge in the coming months.
Bitcoin Whale Presence On Derivatives Still High, More Volatility Ahead?
On-chain data shows Bitcoin whales are transferring large amounts to derivatives exchanges right now, a signal that more volatility could be ahead for the crypto.
Bitcoin All Exchanges To Derivatives Flow Continues To Show High Value
As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, BTC whale activity on derivatives exchanges still seems to be high.
The relevant indicator here is the “all exchanges to derivatives exchanges flow,” which measures the total amount of Bitcoin moving from spot exchange wallets to derivatives.
When the value of this metric spikes up, it means whales are currently moving a large number of coins to derivatives exchanges right now.
Such a trend usually occurs around lows in the price of the crypto as whales look to get themselves long positions.
Related Reading | Bitcoin Recovery Slows Down As Whale Inflows Remain Elevated
On the other hand, low values of the indicator show whales aren’t moving much coins to derivatives at the moment. This kind of trend has historically lead to tops in the value of the coin.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin all exchanges to derivatives flow over the last couple of years:
Looks like the value of the metric has been quite high recently | Source: CryptoQuant
As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin spot to derivatives flow has spiked up recently, suggesting that whale activity is pretty high right now.
In fact, the current value of the indicator is actually the highest ever in the history of the cryptocurrency, implying there is an all-time high rate of whales on derivatives currently.
Historically, the price of the crypto has observed significant volatility whenever the metric’s value has been elevated.
Based on this trend, the quant believes that the value of the coin could still see further fluctuations in the near future.
The analyst also notes that a reduction in the all exchanges to derivatives flow will need to be there, for the volatility to die down.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $21.1k, up 4% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 27% in value.
The below chart shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days.
The value of the crypto seems to have surged up over the last couple of days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
After hitting a low of below $18k a week ago, Bitcoin has been trying to recover. So far, the crypto has managed to break above $21k again, but it’s yet unclear whether this recovery will last.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com
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I’m Tony Spilotro. Behind the pseudonym, I’m a global remote work leader with a decade of award-winning content experience and excellence. Here, I explore my newfound passions pertaining to privacy, finance, economics, politics, cryptography, property rights, and other libertarian-esque views. I am a Bitcoin evangelist, maximalist, and educator whenever I can be, helping to spread its message of freedom from government control, monetary policy mismanagement, and passing the buck – literally – to future generations. My journey from a curious retail crypto investor to a serious Bitcoin advocate, trader, and technical analyst is an unusual one, but life-changing nonetheless and has become less about money and more about a long-overdue revolution. While a firm believer in the laws governing math and science, I am profoundly fascinated by the impact of astrology and astronomy including moon and solar cycles and planetary alignment and their ability to influence and potentially predict markets. It hasn’t yet clicked for me as to how to put anything to use, but I consider it my current rabbit hole I can’t yet dig out of. My perspective of growing up alongside the internet, the dot com era, the Great Recession, and roots in video games collecting coins and rare items caused Bitcoin to immediately make sense to me. Through all of these lenses, I seek to produce content that is educational and entertaining, and I thank you sincerely for taking the time to read what I have to say. Please follow me on Twitter at @tonyspilotroBTC and feel free to drop me a line if you would like to work together.
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