Bitcoin
This Metric Suggests Bitcoin Could Be In Danger Of Another Selloff
Published
3 weeks agoon

A Bitcoin on-chain indicator is currently forming a pattern that has previously led to significant selloffs of the cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin 100-Day SMA Supply Adjusted Dormancy Has Rapidly Gone Up
As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the selloff could potentially be even stronger than the one seen in November 2018. A relevant concept here is of a “coin day,” which is the amount of 1 BTC accumulated after sitting still on the chain for 1 day. Thus, when a token stays dormant for a certain number of days, it gains coin days of the same amount.
However, when this coin is finally moved, its coin days naturally reset back to zero, and the coin days it had previously accumulated are said to be destroyed. An indicator called the “Coin Days Destroyed” (CDD) measures the total amount of such coin days being destroyed through transfers on the entire Bitcoin network.
When the CDD is divided by the total number of coins being involved in transactions, a new metric called the “average dormancy” is obtained. This metric is so named because it tells us how dormant the average coin being transferred on the chain currently is (as dormancy is nothing but the number of coin days).
When the average dormancy is high, it means coins being moved right now are quite aged on average. On the other hand, low values imply investors are currently transferring coins that they only recently acquired.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) Bitcoin dormancy over the last few years:
The 100-day SMA value of the metric seems to have been quite high in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant
Note that the version of the metric in the graph is actually the supply-adjusted dormancy, which is simply calculated by dividing the original indicator by the total amount of Bitcoin supply that’s currently in circulation.
The reason behind this change lies in the fact that the supply of the crypto isn’t constant, but rather moving up with time. So, accounting for this adjustment makes it so that comparisons with previous cycles are easier to do.
As you can see in the above chart, the Bitcoin supply-adjusted dormancy has been on a steady uptrend since the lows observed following the FTX crash. This means that the old supply has been observing rising activity recently, suggesting that the long-term holders might be exerting selling pressure on the market.
The quant notes that a similar trend in the indicator was also seen back in August 2018, where the metric started on an uptrend from the lows seen early in that month. Three months after this uptrend started, BTC observed its final leg down of the bear market, during the crash of November 2018.
If this previous trend is anything to go by, then Bitcoin could be at risk for another selloff soon. And since the uptrend in the metric this time around is even sharper, a potential plunge might be deeper as well.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $20,900, up 11% in the last week.
Looks like BTC has declined in the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Thought Catalog on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com
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Analysis
Smaller exchanges see around $200M in Bitcoin withdrawn over past week
Published
13 hours agoon
February 8, 2023
Smaller exchanges see around $200M in Bitcoin withdrawn over past week Oluwapelumi Adejumo · 6 hours ago · 2 min read
Blockchain analytical firm Santiment said Bitcoin’s existing supply has been moving to self-custody since its value crossed $23,000.
2 min read
Updated: February 8, 2023 at 7:34 pm
Cover art/illustration via CryptoSlate
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Around $200 million worth of Bitcoin (BTC) was withdrawn from smaller exchanges over the past week, according to Glassnode’s data as analyzed by CryptoSlate.
Gate.io recorded the highest withdrawals during this period — the exchange saw $120 million. It was followed by Bithumb, which saw $60 million in withdrawals, and Luno, with $45 million in withdrawals.
The charts below detail the extent of the withdrawals across these exchanges:
Meanwhile, the withdrawals were not restricted to the smaller exchanges alone. Coinglass’s data showed that the amount of Bitcoin on exchanges plummeted over the previous seven days.
According to the data, Binance’s balance reduced by 4,726 BTC in the last seven days, while Coinbase and Kraken dropped by 1,961 BTC and 1,384 BTC, respectively.
The data were further corroborated by the blockchain analytical firm Santiment. The firm said BTC’s existing supply has been moving to self-custody since the assets price crossed $23,000 in early February. It added that there are only 1.47 million Bitcoin on exchanges — the lowest amount since November 2018.
Santiment said:
“There is now $416.5 billion in BTC sitting away from exchanges, and $29.2 billion in BTC on exchanges.”
Crypto investors increasingly favored self-custody following the FTX collapse of last year.
Bitcoin
Crypto Market Correction In Feb, Suspects Traders – But There Is A Catch
Published
15 hours agoon
February 8, 2023By
Elena R
The crypto market has been quite fluctuating lately, especially Bitcoin which is hovering around $23,000 and $22,000 area. The King currency had opened the day on a brighter note, but ended on a bearish trend as the currency has once again dropped towards $22,000 level.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is valued at $22,826 with a fall of 0.42% over the last 24hrs.
When looking at the other side of the coin, Bitcoin has started the year on a bullish cycle as in January alone the currency had gained more than 45% after hitting a high of $24,300. This momentum pushed Ethereum and other altcoins towards their recovery cycle.
Bitcoin On A Bull Ride Soon
However, while the crypto market is moving towards its recovery phase, traders and investors are not so confident about Crypto’s future and are predicting a correction ahead in Feb. Now, what’s interesting is that the on-chain data platform Santiment claims that the market usually leans where traders least expect.
This suggests that when most of the traders are showing a negative stance towards the future of crypto, it creates less selling pressure and more buyers. If this happens, the crypto market will witness and increased demand which will push the cryptocurrency prices towards their next bull run.
The similar claim has been made by a technical analyst, Adrian Zdunczyk aka Crypto Birb where he believes that the crypto market is currently in a disbelief mode.
From my observations, the market is in disbelief mode, still fighting cognitive dissonance and placing too little weight on the recent reversal. Take it with a grain of salt, however. I’ve been riding $BTC from $16920 with size, so I may be biased a little 🙂 pic.twitter.com/DiayBFpwJY
— Adrian Zduńczyk, CMT (@crypto_birb) February 1, 2023
As per the data, often disbelief is the result of fear of missing out on profits and also its a fear of being caught in market correction. However, looking at the broader picture and the increasing institutional interest in Crypto, the market is expected to see continued growth.
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Elena R
Elena is an expert in technical analysis and risk management in cryptocurrency market. She has 10+year experience in writing – accordingly she is avid journalists with a passion towards researching new insights coming into crypto erena.
Analysis
Bitcoin, Ethereum Technical Analysis: ETH Nears $1,700, Fed Prepared To Maintain Rate Hikes
Published
19 hours agoon
February 8, 2023
Ethereum closed in on the $1,700 level on Wednesday, as markets reacted to comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Speaking after Tuesday’s session, Powell hinted that the Fed could continue to hike rates, should the data show the need for action. Bitcoin was also boosted by the news, climbing back into the $23,000 region.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) moved higher on Wednesday, following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Speaking yesterday, Powell stated, “The reality is we’re going to react to the data. So if we continue to get, for example, strong labor market reports or higher inflation reports, it may well be the case that we have to do more and raise rates more than is priced in.”
BTC/USD rose to an intraday high of $23,367.96 earlier today, less than 24 hours after hitting a low of $22,781.95.
Looking at the chart, the move pushed bitcoin to its strongest point in four days, and came as the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) ran into a ceiling.
The index rose to a ceiling at 65.00, however momentum was not strong enough to break out of this point.
As of writing, the index is tracking at 62.92, with BTC falling from earlier highs, and currently trading at $23,195.36.
Ethereum
Ethereum (ETH) extended recent gains today, with prices breaking out of a key resistance point in the process.
Following a low of $1,628.67 on Tuesday, ETH/USD jumped to a peak of $1,688.53 during the hump-day session.
As a result of today’s gains, the world’s second largest cryptocurrency climbed past a resistance level at $1,675.
Similar to bitcoin, this move pushed ETH to its highest point since Saturday, with the RSI also hitting a four-day peak.
At the time of writing, the index is at a reading of 62.97, which is slightly below a ceiling at 64.00.
ETH bulls will likely attempt to break this resistance in the coming days, which will inevitably mean prices move back above $1,700.
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Do you think the Federal Reserve should continue to increase rates? Leave your thoughts in the comments below.
Eliman Dambell
Eliman brings an eclectic point of view to market analysis. He was previously a brokerage director and online trading educator. Currently, he acts as a commentator across various asset classes, including Crypto, Stocks and FX, whilst also a startup founder.
Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons
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