In this episode of NewsBTC’s daily technical analysis videos, we take a closer look at a variety of bullish signals in Bitcoin that fired with the most recent weekly open. However, the cryptocurrency market isn’t out of the woods, as this week must confirm the signals with a strong close.
Take a look at the video below:
VIDEO: Bitcoin Price Analysis (BTCUSD): September 12, 2022
Last night we had a weekly close in Bitcoin and have already added nearly 3% on top of around 16% from the lows swept during last week’s candle. As a result of the move, several bullish signals have fired on the candle open. But it is imperative that BTCUSD remains above current levels to confirm the signals with a full weekly candle close.
Examining The BTCUSD Weekly Buy Signals
The weekly opened with a bullish crossover of the LMACD. Even a weekly candle close and a confirmed crossover can be a trap, as we have seen on the way down in BTCUSD weekly charts. However, it is where the crossover is happening from that is particularly notable.
Bullish crossovers of the LMACD during past bear markets at such a level have resulted in a long term bottom and sustained bull run. Momentum in both the 2018 and 2014 bear markets fell to the same level.
BTCUSD weekly is also working on a buy signal on the Relative Strength Index, according to the tool’s creator, J. Welles Wilder Jr. The buy signal is activated when the RSI falls below oversold conditions, then rises from below the threshold.
If at the next pullback, the RSI doesn’t revisit oversold conditions, we have one important factor in generating the buy signal. The RSI must then make a higher high. Comparison with the 2018 bear market bottom shows this exact behavior and its impact.
Comparing past Bitcoin bear market buy signals | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Reversal Targets Retest Of $32,000 Support Turned Resistance
If at all the bottom in Bitcoin is in, the next logical target would first be closing above the middle-Bollinger Band, and then pushing to the opposite side of the bands at roughly $32,000.
On the Ichimoku, the Kijun-sen is just about at the same level as the upper Bollinger Band, highlighting a clear level of importance on weekly timeframes. Much like the last bear market, Bitcoin has just taken the Tenkan-sen, and a cloud twist occurred after a bottom was already in.
Indicator dynamic resistance could give a target of $32K | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Related Reading: WATCH: Bitcoin, Wyckoff Theory, And The Composite Man | BTCUSD September 8, 2022
Could A 3-Month, 300% Rally Be In The Cards For Bitcoin?
Since the condition from the 2018 bear market bottom appears so similar currently, let’s use the bars pattern to project the 2019 rally from where we are currently.
The result is a revisit to all-time highs. If you recall, the 2019 rally took only three months for BTC to gain 300%. It didn’t set a new high until almost another 18 months later.
The 2019 rally resulted in over 300% growth | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
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Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com
Chiliz [CHZ] on-chain metrics to consider before going long this week
CHZ is among the cryptocurrencies that have delivered the most gains recovering from June lows. It just concluded a 25% retracement from its September highs. However, multiple signs including a new listing may allow the bulls to regain control.
CHZ demand tends to increase every time Chiliz lists a new fan token. If history repeats or rhymes, then we should expect a weekend rally.
This is because Chiliz just announced the launch of Atlas FC fan token.
📢 In 24 hours, we will list the @AtlasFC $ATLAS Fan Token on the Chiliz Exchange.
🗓 Tomorrow, October 6th
⏰ 14:00 CEST
More info 👉 https://t.co/dgAvlXzw2T$ATLAS ⚡ $CHZ pic.twitter.com/gESE7OzGtW
— Chiliz ($CHZ) – Powering Socios.com ⚡ (@Chiliz) October 5, 2022
Chiliz also plans to launch another token (GFK fan token) next week and these launches may collectively trigger higher demand for CHZ.
These are not the only factors currently supporting a potential bullish sentiment. CHZ is currently positioned within a Fibonacci retracement zone that may act as a psychological buy zone.
The green Chiliz, please
CHZ bottomed out at $0.208 earlier this week after a 25% pullback from its $0.282 September peak.
The weekly low is within the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement line. Note that this is after retracing from CHZ’s 2022 bottom to its recent top.
The Fibonacci line increases the probability of a bullish pivot at the current range. The downside in the last two weeks also resulted in a push below the 50% RSI level.
Well, the RSI is currently at a short-term support level, which further enhances the potential upside.
CHZ’s on-chain flows may help provide more clarity regarding its short-term direction. Exchange outflows in the last 24 hours at press time peaked at 2.16 million CHZ. Meanwhile, exchange inflows peaked at 1.24 million CHZ during the same period.
Here’s AMBCrypto’s Price Prediction for CHZ
The exchange supply flow observation means there was a higher net outflow. In other words, there was more CHZ being bought than the amount of cryptocurrency being sold.
Still, on the matter of exchanges, CHZ’s supply held outside exchanges increased in the last seven days. This is a sign that demand has been leaning toward the bullish side.
The same observation confirms that there was healthy demand for CHZ during the last seven days. On the other hand, the supply on exchanges declined during the same period. This is consistent with the bullish expectations and observed demand.
Moreover, the supply held by top non-exchange addresses increased slightly at the end of September. It remained relatively flat in the remaining days to the present.
The above metric confirms that whales have not contributed to selling pressure during the week.
On-chain metrics confirm that exchange flows are currently in favor of some upside in the next few days.
This is in sync with the Fibonacci retracement line, hence there was an abundance of factors pointing towards this expectation.
However, investors should still exercise caution because unexpected market events may trigger some more downside.
Good days for BNB holders might end soon- Here’s why
BNB recently posted a tweet mentioning all the new developments that have happened in its ecosystem. According to the tweet, over the last seven days, nearly 1495 BNB tokens were burned.
The altcoin also witnessed a growth in its total addresses as more than 1.73 million new addresses joined the network. Moreover, BNB’s total value locked increased and reached the $5.45 billion mark.
🎉 #BNBCHAIN Key Metrics Last 7 Days
Even in market volatility, #BNB Chain is moving forward daily💪
• $BNB Burned: 1495 (~ $443K)
• Unique Address Growth: 1.73M New Addresses
• Total Value Locked: $4.45B
• Weekly Active Users: 3.1M#BNB #BSC #WEB3 🔥 pic.twitter.com/CLNvV4jnO2
— BSCDaily (@bsc_daily) October 6, 2022
All these positive developments were reflected in BNB’s price trajectory. Its weekly chart was painted green. Additionally, BNB was the top gainer last week among the top five cryptos in terms of market capitalization, registering nearly 5% week-over-week growth.
At press time, the alt was trading at $294.17. However, despite these positive developments, things might soon get darker for BNB as several of its on-chain metrics suggest a trend reversal in the coming days.
Metrics at play
BNB’s MVRV Ratio registered a decline over the last week, which is a bearish signal. Not only that, but BNB’s volume also followed a similar route and went south during the past seven days.
After marking a spike at the beginning of this month, BNB’s social volume also decreased. Thus, reflecting the diminishing interest from the crypto community in the token. However, the positive news was that BNB’s development activity managed to register an uptick lately.
On the other hand, CryptoQuant’s data revealed that things were not quite good for BNB as both its Relative Strength Index (RSI) and stochastic were in an oversold position, which shows that a price decline in the coming days could be imminent.
Here’s AMBCrypto’s Price Prediction for BNB for 2023-24
Despite all these negative developments, BNB’s popularity remained unharmed as it recently topped the list of most used smart contracts for the top 1000 biggest BSC whales on 6 October.
🏆 MOST USED smart contracts for the top 1000 biggest #BSC whales today
🥈 #BSC-USD @Tether_to
🥉 $BUSD @PaxosGlobal
5️⃣ #BabyDoge @babydogecoin
6️⃣ $USDC @circlepay
8️⃣ $UNI @Uniswap
9️⃣ $LINK @chainlink
🔟 $JED @JedStarOfficial pic.twitter.com/zVBkqtsZek
— WhaleStats – the top 1000 BSC richlist (@WhaleStatsBSC) October 6, 2022
Curiously, a few market indicators were also in favor of a price plummet soon, while others supported the possibility of a continued uptrend.
For instance, BNB’s Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) registered a downtick and was moving toward a neutral position. Interestingly, On Balance Volume (OBV) also followed the same route and went down, both of which are bear signals, suggesting an upcoming price drop.
The reading of the MACD indicator supported the bears. Moreover, the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) Ribbon indicated that after a long tussle, the 20-day EMA finally managed to go above BNB’s 55-day EMA. The chances of a short uptick can’t be ruled out.
Do Kwon’s case: Fresh twist appears as LUNA holders go down in worry
South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on Wednesday (5 October) that Terraform Labs Pte. Ltd. CEO Kwon Do-Hyung, aka Do Kwon, would have his passport revoked in four weeks if he did not return it.
Well, Do Kwon had an arrest warrant out for him, and his name has been widely reported to have been added to the red list by International Police.
Claims and counter-claims
Do Kwon has been using his social media accounts to debunk reports from South Korean outlets and other news sources from the beginning of the event.
He tweeted on 17 September, just days after word of his arrest warrant leaked, and insisted that he was never on the run. He also stated that he and his team would cooperate with any government agency that reached out to them.
The co-founder of Terra reportedly had his assets blocked, and this was reported many times. Do Kwon in his tweet also claimed that no money of his had been frozen.
On 28 September, his team sent a statement to the Wall Street Journal saying they believed the case had become extremely politicized and that the conduct of the Korean prosecutors revealed unfairness and a failure to defend basic rights granted under Korean law.
Do Kwon and his team had also made it clear that regardless of what interpretation Korean financial authorities may have recently taken, they still consider Luna not to be security.
Price action not looking good
The previous 24 hours of LUNA price data showed the asset had been losing value. Opening at $2.588 on 5 September, LUNA dropped to close at $2.548, a loss of 0.37% from its opening price.
As of the time of this writing, the price drop was above 1% during the trading period. It appeared that $2.138 was still providing solid support and that $3.071 was still providing resistance.
From the looks of the price chart, the original news of Do Kwon’s arrest did not have much of an effect on the asset’s value. But volume looked to have dropped significantly after the release of the Interpol red list, and the latest information concerning the passport invalidation also seemed to have triggered the negative price movement.
Did LUNC also take a hit?
Although the pattern does not immediately reveal whether or not Do Kwon’s news developments affected LUNC’s trading, it appeared to be trading down as well.
However, as seen by the volume indicator, trading volume has been declining over the past two days. Additionally, it revealed that LUNC had dropped by more than 2% in the preceding day.
Beginning the day at $0.000307, it traded as high as $0.000307 before settling at $0.000300 by market close on 5 September. Its support at $0.000263 had been tested throughout the previous weeks, but it appeared to be holding. The resistance appeared to be in the $0.000370 area.
As the Terra saga continues to drag on, prospective investors may wish to wait before making any decisions. Consequently, it’s possible that new investors won’t be joining the ecosystem very soon. Furthermore, if investors are unsure about the story’s eventual resolution, selling pressure could increase and growth would slow.
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