The Cardano Vasil hard fork has been in the works for a while now. Hype for this hard fork had been overshadowed by that of the Ethereum Merge, but now that the Merge is done and out of the way, the focus has now fallen back on the Cardano network once more. Given this, there has been much optimism about where the price of ADA is going from here, but the digital asset has not given any indication of positive movement.
ADA Fails To Move
With the Cardano Vasil hard fork drawing closer, investors have been expecting the kind of market run-up that preceded the Ethereum Merge. However, the price of ADA has not been responding in the same way since it continues to trend low.
The digital asset has suffered various dips during this time that has brought it down to $0.44 during this time. Even with the news of the hard fork and a definite date for the upgrade, there has been no significant increase in the price of the digital asset. Instead, ADA has succumbed to the general market trend and has remained in the red over this time.
Over the last 24 hours, the price of ADA has been sliding. It has lost 10.76% already in the last day and is down 14.41% over the longer time frame of 7 days. The bearish outlook for the digital asset continues to wax strong, keeping the digital asset from reaching the $0.5 point.
Cardano is currently seeing significant resistance at $0.47. Support levels for the digital assets are not as strong as expected, making it easy pickings for the bears. Presently, the odds of ADA getting to $0.5 is growing slimmer with each day.
Cardano Hard Fork Coming Up
The Vasil hard fork is scheduled for September 22nd, and Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson has assured the community that everything is going as planned. The founder said this in a live broadcast that garnered more than 44,000 viewers, where he explained that the hard fork had actually been triggered.
This shows that the requirements for the Merge to begin have been fulfilled, and the hard fork is ready to be carried out. The developer behind the Cardano network, IOG, has also dropped statements that speak to the readiness of the network for the upgrade.
IOG explained that the completion of the upgrade would make the network more developer friendly. Higher functionality, performance, and scalability are expected following the upgrade. The Vasil hard fork is now the most anticipated upgrade in the crypto space.
As for the price of ADA, selling pressure is still mounting in the market. Demand has declined, causing the tokens to be valued lower than they did a year ago. Nevertheless, Cardano is still a dominant cryptocurrency, ranked as the 8th largest cryptocurrency with a market cap of $14.94 billion.
Featured image from CNBCTV18, chart from TradingView.com
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Cardano TVL Plummets To 8 Month Low, No Vasil Hardfork Positive Effect
Cardano has suffered a significant drop in its total staked volume since its March 2022 peak. The proof-of-stake blockchain has lost over 76% of its total value locked in the past eight months. The decline is alarming, given the decentralized crypto project’s recent Vasil hardfork.
The Cardano community welcomed the Vasil upgrade with high expectations. The hardfork was meant to upgrade the blockchain’s performance and place it in a position to contend with other top DeFi projects. However, it seems that the update hasn’t been able to deliver much bullishness for ADA holders.
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Loss Of Staking Value For Cardano
Based on data obtained from Defi Llama, Cardano’s total value locked (TVL) has continuously decreased since its March height. It has now fallen below $80 million for the first time since January 2022.
More specifically, Cardano’s TVL was reported to be $76.66 million at the time of this writing. This figure reflects a 76.49% decrease from the all-time high of $326 million that it hit on March 24, 2022. This new figure has pushed the staking value of ADA to the levels it had in January 2022.
Cardano is presently ranked 27th among all blockchains regarding the total value of locked (TVL). It is trailing behind blockchains such as Bitcoin (BTC), Algorand (ALGO), Polygon (MATIC), Avalanche (AVAX), and Tron (TRX). Ethereum (ETH), which now has a market value of 32 billion dollars, has a commanding lead.
Can Cardano Reach $1?
ADA and most other cryptocurrencies suffered through a gloomy month in September. However, crucial updates and strong token fundamentals suggest that ADA might be set for a breakthrough in October. This is generally a bullish month for the cryptocurrency markets.
Nevertheless, it seems unlikely that Cardano will be able to reach $1 in the next four weeks. This is because major technical indicators like the RSI and MACD are below 50, signaling a negative trend.
Cardano Making Waves In Other Areas
Despite the fact that Cardano’s staking value has dropped significantly, there are some positive developments happening within the project’s space. For instance, Cardano is among the ten most popular cryptocurrencies picked by banks that disclosed exposure to the innovative asset class. The findings were reported by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) of the Bank of International Settlements (BIS).
Not only that, but Cardano has also been winning in the social media area. The number of daily social mentions of ADA had risen to a 90-day high of 52,470 as of September 23. This brings the total number of mentions to 2.32 million, as per statistics from the social intelligence platform LunarCrush.
Related Reading: Calm Before The Storm? Bitcoin Volatility At Historically Low Levels
Finally, Cardano has the support of several bulls who have expressed their confidence in the project. The cryptocurrency community at CoinMarketCap is positive on the price of Cardano by the end of October. Based on a poll, members have predicted that ADA would trade at $0.5873 at the end of the month. This was 36.77% higher than its $0.4294 price at the time of writing.
Featured image from Pixabay and chart from TradingView.com
Brace For Impact: This Expert Trader Says Cardano (ADA) Will See A 50% Decline
Cardano (ADA) has seen its price decline significantly over the last year after hitting a new all-time high above $3. The digital asset is down more than 86% from this all-time high value to be sitting just above $0.4 at the time of this writing in what looks like the digital asset has found its bottom. However, expert trader Peter Brandt says that the worse is not yet over for the digital asset, and more decline in price should be expected.
ADA Will Decline by 50%
In true chartist fashion, analyst Peter Brandt took to Twitter to post a chart that outlined important technical levels for the digital asset. He points out that the digital asset was forming what is known as a “classic descending triangle.” Brandt outlines that this point to a possible decline for the digital asset going forward.
According to analysts, this could see the price of Cardano (ADA) actually fall below $0.25. Now, given the current price of ADA, it would mean that the digital asset’s price would have to mark another 50% decline from this point. Furthermore, it would put ADA’s price at more than 90% below its all-time high price. Not a surprising figure, as cryptocurrencies have been known to lose more value in a bear market.
The $ADAUSD chart is a classic descending triangle per Schabacker, Edwards and Magee and suggests a possible decline to sub .25. Do charts always work? — not really, but when they do it is a thing of beauty. Note — I do NOT short #8hitcoins pic.twitter.com/HP6mEbChJq
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) October 5, 2022
Interestingly, though, Brandt added that he did not plan to short the altcoin despite this price prediction. His reasoning for this was that he did not short “shitcoins,” referring to the 8th largest cryptocurrency by market cap as a shitcoin.
ADA price trending at $0.43 | Source: ADAUSD on TradingView.com
Will Cardano Follow This Prediction?
In Peter Brandt’s analysis, he notes that following the charts does not always work but that they sometimes do. For investors, it would mean that they should prepare for the worst-case scenario in case the forecast does prove to be accurate. However, not everyone agreed with the analyst’s forecast for the digital asset.
Another Twitter user who goes by @eenmakkie took to the replies to combat Brands’s analysis. They explain that while ADA’s price going below $0.35 was a possibility, it would not be possible to drop below $0.25 unless the price of bitcoin were to break below $16,000.
This is not a farfetched prediction, given that altcoins tend to closely follow and mirror the price movements of bitcoin. If bitcoin were to drop another 10-20% and fall below its previous cycle bottom of $17,600, then the crypto market could be looking at more losses.
Nevertheless, ADA seems to have a strong hold above $0.4 at the moment despite technical indicators all pointing to bearish performance for the digital asset. But if it fails to hold the $0.42 support level, then sub-$0.35 becomes a stronger possibility.
Featured image from Cardano Feed, chart from TradingView.com
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Cardano’s [ADA] price reacts this way as Voltaire hint airs
Late in September, Cardano [ADA] released the Vasil hardfork. Positive feelings persisted after the fork, as the network continued to function normally.
Now, Cardano’s founder, Charles Hoskinson, on 3 October intimated that the next phase, the age of Voltaire, was on the horizon now that Vasil has been functioning as planned.
The Age of Voltaire will soon be upon us as an ecosystem. It’s going to unlock the power of the millions of Cardano users and builders. It will also, once again, show the rest of the industry how to do decentralized governance just like we did with Staking. pic.twitter.com/HO8PgA5J2G
— Charles Hoskinson (@IOHK_Charles) October 3, 2022
Enter the age of Voltaire
According to Hoskinson’s tweet, this new era was geared toward the users and builders of the network. He argued that Cardano’s goal was to enhance decentralized governance in a way that would serve as an example to the rest of the industry.
Furthermore, according to the roadmap of this stage, a voting and treasury system would be introduced. Cardano would be fully decentralized and free from Input Output’s control once a voting mechanism and a treasury system are implemented. As a result, the destiny of Cardano would squarely remain in the hands of its users.
Uptick in price at the mercy of bears
The tweet generated a good price movement as ADA observed more buy volume and closed in the green zone as of 3 October. At the end of the day, ADA’s price was $0.4276, up from its 3 October opening price of $0.4195, a gain of about 2%.
At the time of writing, ADA was still trading at $0.43, with the volume indicator indicating more buying pressure.
On the daily timeframe, the trend line showed a downward trend in the price of ADA in the last few weeks. Despite the previous testing, the support line around $0.425 appeared to be holding. Over the past few months, ADA met resistance at $0.484, with every break resulting in a correction below the line.
Furthermore, the last seven days witnessed more erosion of the resistance level, which at press time stood at $0.450. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading below 50, bearish momentum was evident.
The Awesome Oscillator (AO) was also below the zero line, indicating a strong bearish trend despite the recent price increase on the daily timeframe.
There was less work done on projects according to Santiment after the Vasil fork than there had been before. The number although now inched up, sat at 73. In the following weeks, as Voltaire’s preparations ramp up, you can expect an increase in commits and developer activity.
What ADA investors can take from this
The development of Cardano is being closely watched by observers in the industry. Once the Voltaire phase has been implemented effectively, the concept of a decentralized network may gain traction, attracting more investors to the project.
Furthermore, the current price range may be an excellent buying opportunity for ADA investors who plan to take a long position.
Additionally, the imminent chance of a significant price change in either direction may not occur in the near future. Furthermore, the altcoin still has a market cap of over $14 billion, making it the eighth largest cryptocurrency.
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