Research: Bitcoin exchange inflows sink to multi-year lows Samuel Wan · 8 hours ago · 2 min read
Exchange flow metrics show an overall decline in both inflows and outflows, with inflows — or profit taking — seeing the biggest drop off.
2 min read
Updated: September 6, 2022 at 3:13 pm
Cover art/illustration via CryptoSlate
Exchange flow metrics are used to assess investor sentiment and behavior. Inflows into exchanges usually denote token holders cashing out profits. Whereas outflows typically relate to holders moving tokens off exchanges for long-term storage.
Both inflows and outflows have tapered off significantly from November 2021 market highs, with inflows seeing the most significant change by sinking to multi-year lows.
Bitcoin Exchange Inflow and Outflow
Exchange inflow and outflow show the total amount of Bitcoin transferred to and from exchange wallets in USD. The chart below shows that over a 30-day moving average, inflows have exceeded outflows consistently since mid-2017. This is expected behavior in a bull cycle as smart money holders send BTC to exchanges to cash out profits.
Since the November 2020 market top, this disparity has been particularly noticeable, with inflows significantly outpacing outflows culminating in a June 2021 peak of approximately $6 billion.
However, since that peak, inflows have markedly dropped off, matching covid crash levels seen in July 2020.
Exchange Inflow Heatmap
Heatmaps show a breakdown of the total transfer volume sent to and withdrawn from exchanges in USD.
The left y-axis represents the size of individual transaction volume in USD. The color represents the number of transactions in each of the 100 volume buckets. At the same time, the right y-axis shows the Bitcoin price in USD on a logarithmic scale. Along the bottom x-axis is time.
The chart below shows high inflow volume occurring during the December 2017 previous bull cycle peak. Similarly, this pattern played out during Bitcoin’s double top, when its price hit $64,000 and $69,000 in March 2021 and November 2021, respectively.
Exchange Outflow Heatmap
Token outflows follow a similar pattern to inflows, with peak transaction counts occurring in December 2017, March 2021, and November 2021.
Taken in conjunction with previous observations, this suggests that short-term holders bought Bitcoin heavily during both bull cycle peaks while long-term holders were selling at the top.
CryptoSlate Daily wMarket Update – Oct. 6: Market turns red as BTC dips below $20,000
CryptoSlate Daily wMarket Update – Oct. 6: Market turns red as BTC dips below $20,000 Monika Ghosh · 3 hours ago · 3 min read
The wMarket Update condenses the most important price movements in the crypto markets over the last 24 hours, published 08:00 UTC on weekdays.
3 min read
Updated: October 7, 2022 at 8:57 am
Cover art/illustration via CryptoSlate
Reversing the trend of the past three days, the cryptocurrency market saw $15.3 billion flow out over the past 24 hours, according to CryptoSlate data. As a result, the total crypto market cap dropped to $956.27 billion as of press time.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) market cap declined to $382.97 billion from $387.11 billion the previous day. The market cap of Ethereum (ETH) fell to $166.42 billion at the time of writing.
Following the lead of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the top ten cryptocurrencies are all in the red over the past 24 hours. Binance’s BNB saw the steepest decline at 3.82% followed by Dogecoin (DOGE), which dropped by 3.53%.
The market cap of USD Coin (USDC) continued its steady downward climb, dropping to $46.15 billion at press time. The market cap of Tether (USDT) and BinanceUSD (BUSD) remained firmly steady during the period at $68.22 billion and $21.04 billion, respectively.
BTC price fell 1.69% over the past 24 hours, retreating below the $20,000 resistance level — it was trading at $19,975 at press time. Bitcoin’s market dominance dropped slightly to 40% over the past day.
BTC price traded with a downward bias throughout the past 24 hours, struggling to stay above $20,000. At around 20:00 UTC, BTC price finally receded below $20,000, although it recovered slightly around 02:00 UTC, only to fall further down again.
ETH price declined 1.21% over the past 24 hours to trade at around $1,355 at press time. However, the token’s market dominance increased marginally to 17.4% during the period, according to CryptoSlate data.
ETH price saw high volatility over the past day, with several steep dips. However, like Bitcoin, it traded with a downward bias, going as low as $1,350 during the period. The token set a 24-hour high price at $1,370 at around 14:00 UTC.
Top 5 Gainers
DESO bagged the most significant gains of the day at 23.81% to trade at around $17.48. The token is up 183.2% for the month, and its market cap stood at $155.31 million at the time of writing.
The price of CSPR increased 12.95% over the past 24 hours — the token was trading at $0.03 at press time. Casper’s market cap stood at $371.22 million. The token is up 31.95% over the past 30 days.
REEF was trading at $0.005 at the time of publishing — up 10.26% over the past 24 hours. The token has bagged 49.43% gains over the past month, and its market cap totaled $107.15 million.
RVN price increased 4.76% over the past day to trade at around $0.03 as of press time. The token’s market capitalization amounted to $433.76 million.
XDC booked 4.43% gains over the past 24 hours to trade at around $0.03 at press time. The token’s market cap stood at $388.76 million.
Top 5 Losers
CEL widened its losses over the past 24 hours, dropping 13.03% to trade at around $1.12. The token’s market cap amounted to $268.95 million.
Crypto lender Celsius filed for bankruptcy in July and is set to auction its assets later this month. FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried said earlier this week that the firm will pay “fair market value” for Celsius’ assets. But Celsius users may be in for a long wait since the firm’s corporate structure, which was changed earlier this year, prioritizes shareholders over users regarding returning assets in the case of a bankruptcy.
GLMR eliminated most of its gains from the previous day, dropping 9.06% over the past 24 hours to trade at $0.47. The token’s market cap stood at $190.15 million at the time of writing.
GMX widened its losses from the past few days, declining 7.92% over the past 24 hours to trade at $43.98. GMX’s market cap amounted to $351.44 million — down 8.29% from $383.22 million the previous day.
HNT price dropped 7.53% over the past 24 hours to trade at $5.03 at press time. The token’s market cap amounted to $643.6 million.
METIS declined 6.45% over the past day to trade at around $26.38 at press time, eliminating the majority of gains from the previous day. The token’s market cap stood at $115.92 million at the time of writing.
Bitcoin [BTC] is finally seeing green, but what role did the whales play
After what can be considered a long and never-ending wait, Bitcoin [BTC] managed to find some green pastures on the charts finally. This sparked joy within the crypto-community as investors and enthusiasts were expecting a breakout soon. Apart from this, several other interesting developments acted in favor of the king coin.
Here’s AMBCrypto’s Price Prediction for Bitcoin [BTC] for 2023-24
A recent tweet from market intelligence platform Santiment revealed that whales have been accumulating more BTC of late, which wasn’t the case for a majority of 2022. According to the same, addresses holding 100 to 10k BTC collectively added 46,173 BTC to their wallets.
Interestingly, it was also revealed that while the whales increased their BTC holdings, a simultaneous decline was seen in Tether whale supply. This new development seemed to be good news for Bitcoin as it represented whales’ growing confidence in the coin.
🐳 #Bitcoin whales are showing signs of sustained accumulation, which has been a rarity in 2022. Since September 27th, addresses holding 100 to 10k $BTC have collectively added back 46,173 BTC back to their wallets as large $USDT holdings have dropped. https://t.co/v6oUduVux1 pic.twitter.com/8JGDC0g5a9
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) October 5, 2022
A moment to savour
After weeks of decline, the cryptocurrency managed to turn the tide in its favor, gaining by over 7% over the past week. At the time of writing, BTC was trading above the $20,000-level at $20,233.28 with a market capitalization of $387.9 billion.
Interestingly, as per a tweet from Messari, that’s not all the positive news for Bitcoin. According to the market intelligence platform, BTC capacity held in public channels on the Lightning Network reached a new high of 4,618 BTC – Valued at $93 million.
The #bitcoin capacity held in public channels on the Lightning Network reached a new high of 4,618 #BTC valued at $93M.
The combination of the increase in adoption and integrations led to capacity drastically increasing by 96% in the past year. pic.twitter.com/5SdW5n9ABz
— Messari (@MessariCrypto) October 5, 2022
Not only this, but several other on-chain metrics also painted a positive picture for the crypto. Glassnode’s data revealed that BTC’s exchange outflows spiked over the last few days – A bullish signal.
As Bitcoin’s price hiked on the charts, its total percentage of supply in profit also followed the same route and registered an uptick. On-chain data analytics platform CryptoQuant’s data revealed that Bitcoin’s exchange reserves continued to fall. This confirmed lower selling pressure.
Moreover, BTC’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, along with volume, also went up recently. This indicated a sustained uptick in the days to come.
All the aforementioned metrics indicated that BTC may have left darker days behind. Investors could expect BTC’s price to rise on the charts again. However, a few metrics did suggest otherwise.
For instance, BTC’s net deposits on exchanges were high, compared to the seven-day average. This was a bear signal, one confirming higher selling pressure. Moreover, BTC’s reserve risk also went up, indicating that it was not the right time to invest whole-heartedly.
Cardano’s performance in Q4 may have a September connection – Here’s how
Cardano’s [ADA] show of strength per its development activity seemed to have stood at crossroads due to some contrasting views. According to Santiment, development activity on the ADA chain had decreased significantly since 28 September after reaching peaks. However, Input Output Global (IOG), the development team behind the Vasil upgrade, had opposing opinions.
In the firm’s weekly update, Cardano had onboarded 1,113 projects and 100 that were launched. In the same vein, transactions had crossed the 50 million mark.
ICYMI: Our weekly #Cardano development update is live on #EssentialCardano! Check out what our dev team has been up to and get the latest on our development progress. As always, we welcome your feedback and comments👇 https://t.co/eEdCmXCB7C
— Input Output (@InputOutputHK) October 1, 2022
For Cardano, this was an excellent landmark since the Vasil hard fork. However, the transaction count showed a slow down in the Cardano ecosystem. Hence, it could have impacted Santiment’s records.
As of 2 October, ADA’s development activity was back to the point it was on 6 September. Moreover, the development activity was not the only one on a backpedal.
Going back in time?
As ADA stood around the $0.43 price of 2 October, it seemed like the altcoin wanted to play “catch back.” A look at the charts showed that ADA’s current momentum was similar to the state it was in four weeks ago.
Furthermore, as of 2 October, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showed that ADA was approaching the four-week support level. At that position, then, ADA was able to fight its way out of losing the 3 September support grip. But are the circumstances presently the same?
Considering that the RSI was at 37.76, one may have assumed that a reversal would require asking for sellers’ mercy. However, it seemed like it was not all black and white without the presence of other indicators.
Per the On-Balance-Volume (OBV), ADA could be on its way to reclaiming the 25% volume loss in the last 24 hours. While there was no certainty, a drop of the OBV to 43.30 billion was minimal as compared to 1 October. Because of this state, ADA still had the chance to reverse to bullish momentum.
For the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), it could be vital to help ADA follow the same September pattern mentioned above. However, the CMF was at -0.11, meaning less money had recently been pumped into ADA.
Then again, indications from the CMF showed that an increase in volume was about to begin. If so, ADA could head towards a recovery of the 1.84% one-day decrease. On the other end, there were still signs of a collapse of the bears.
All in all, the altcoin had formerly passed through this phase. One almost certain thing is that ADA might have to choose which of the September levels it prefers for the last quarter — a recovery or the downside.
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