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Litecoin Reveals Rollout Date For MimbleWimble, Will LTC See Relief?

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Litecoin Reveals Rollout Date For MimbleWimble, Will LTC See Relief?

Litecoin major update MimbleWimble (MWEB) has been approved by a majority of the nodes and locked in for activation. This process will be completed in the next two weeks, at the height of block 2 million, or May 19th, according to David Burkett, lead MWEB developer.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Collapses By Most In Nearly A Month – Its Golden Days Are Over?

Burkett confirmed that users with the updated version (0.21.2) of the software will be able to start transacting with MWEB capabilities. This version is set to be released today after multiple years of development. Burkett said:

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Anyone interested in using the MWEB, and especially those who installed one of the earlier release candidates, should upgrade to the official v0.21.2 before MWEB activates. If you wait until after MWEB activation to upgrade, you’ll unfortunately be required to resync the blockchain from scratch.

The most highly anticipated upgrade since its inception, MimbleWimble will provide Litecoin users with better performance and privacy capabilities. This could create more demand for the underlying cryptocurrency as it currently trades in tandem with larger cryptocurrencies.

The lead developer clarified that the upgraded wallet has been “solid”. However, there have been some changes as a result of fixed issues found during the update’s testing phase.

In a previous post, Burkett explained in greater detail some of the issues fixed during MWEB’s testing phase. These included fixing the wallet transaction history, issues with the mining logic, and a change in the spend code to prevent a bug with the subtract fee from amount functionality.

The developer successfully reported:

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(…) the consensus logic has been solid for a while now, the wallet has undergone drastic changes these past few months as we worked to resolve issues found during testing. The major workflows all seem to be working well now, and I expect most people to be able to use MWEB without issue

Can The Price Of Litecoin Benefit?

At the time of writing, Litecoin (LTC) trades at $96 with a 22% loss over the past month and a 73% loss in one year. There seems to be no reaction from market participants over the upcoming release of MimbleWimble.

LTC’s price on a downtrend on the 4-hour chart. Source: LTCUSD Tradingview

Despite it being one of the most anticipated updates, LTC’s price seems to be following Bitcoin and larger cryptocurrencies in the short term. Data from material indicators point to two important facts for the future of LTC.

First, as seen below, retail and small investors (yellow and green in the chart) have been buying into the recent price action which supports the thesis that MWEB is an expected update. Probably, these investors expect appreciation in the long run as MimbleWimble could open the door to new use cases for Litecoin.

Retail investors (in green and yellow in the chart) buy LTC, as large investors sell (In purple and red) since April 2022, in a 1-week timeframe. Source: Material Indicators

Other investors classes have been selling into the price action until very recently. Investors (in purple above) with asks orders of over $100,000 seem skeptical about LTC’s price and have been dumping since April.

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Related Reading | Bitcoin Tumbles Below $36K, Altcoins In Red Too

These investors have been slowing down on their selling pressure, at least, for short timeframes. However, buyers could have a hard time getting above $100 as there are almost $10 million in asks orders around those levels.

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Altcoins

Can Litecoin’s [LTC] long-awaited MWEB update shine a light to end this darkness

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Can Litecoin’s [LTC] long-awaited MWEB update shine a light to end this darkness

On 19 May, Litecoin finally launched its new MimbleWimble (MWEB) upgrade after years of development. The upgrade, which was completed at the Litecoin block height of two million, promised that privacy will be guaranteed as users complete transactions on the Litecoin Network.

While it is trite that native tokens barely exhibit any positive reaction to news of their networks’ upgrade, the bloodbath that plagued the cryptocurrency markets in the last few weeks have made it even more difficult for positive movement in the LTC token even in the face of the much-anticipated upgrade.

Prior to the upgrade, the price of the Network’s native token, LTC, was ailing. However, the coin appears to be making a recovery two days after the implementation of the long-awaited MWEB upgrade. 

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Let there be ‘lite’

Following several weeks of recording losses, the MWEB upgrade to Litecoin’s Network came with good tidings for the HODLers of the LTC token. After a decline of 83.23% from its ATH of $412.96, the token appears to be positioned for a slow recovery with the MWEB upgrade.

Standing at $69.29 at the time of writing, the token, since the MWEB upgrade rallied up by 2% from its initial position of $67 on 19 May. 

Source: CoinMarketCap

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Further to this, a look at movements of the price charts suggested a bullish divergence. At the time of writing, the MACD line intersected the trend line in an upward direction. This generally is indicative of increased selling pressure; a precursor to a bullish run. It appears that following the upgrade, investors took to accumulating the coin to drive up its price.

Source: TradingView

A consideration of the market capitalization for the token revealed similar growth. At $4.77 billion on 19 May, which was the day of launch, the market cap stood at $4.89 billion at press time.

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Source: CoinMarketCap

The darkness may still prevail… 

Despite the growth recorded on a price front, a look at data from the chain revealed that investors should not be joyous just yet.

At 318.21k on 19 May, the number of unique addresses involved in LTC transactions daily took on a downtrend. Standing at 109k at the time of press, the daily active addresses for the LTC token declined by over 65% in just two days.

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Source: Santiment

Following a similar progression of decline was the transaction volume of the token. At 801.02 million on 19 May, the transaction volume plummeted by 21% in just two days leaving he transaction volume at 624.87 million at the time of writing. 

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Source: Santiment

Despite the upgrade, the index for the developmental activity on the network took on a downtrend in the last two days. At the time of press, this stood at 2.17 against the 2.24 marked on the day of launch, 19 May. 

Source: Santiment

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Furthermore, a look at whale activity within the period under review showed a decline in transactions count. For transactions over $1 million, the LTC token recorded a 91% decline in transactions count. With 62 whale transaction count recorded on 19 May and a mere five recorded at press time, the whales no longer appeared to be accumulating the token. Similarly, for transactions over $100k, an 85% decline in transaction count was spotted within the period under review. 

Source: Santiment

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Altcoins

Assessing if Litecoin [LTC] is targeting $50 as its next stop

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Assessing if Litecoin [LTC] is targeting $50 as its next stop

Disclaimer: The findings of the following analysis are the sole opinions of the writer and should not be considered investment advice

A recent report highlighted that the daily transaction count on the Litecoin network has been pretty much the same as three months ago, standing at just over 100k. Similarly, the active address count has also remained unchanged, hovering around 300k, the same number it was back in February. This suggested a lack of growth in terms of users and investors for Litecoin. Combined with the fear in the market, the strong downtrend of Litecoin on the charts was rather unsurprising.

LTC- 1 Day Chart

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Source: LTC/USDT on TradingView

On the daily chart, the price has made a series of lower highs and lower lows going as far back as late November. In fact, since November, no swing high of the downtrend (lower highs) has been breached even once, which suggested strong bearish pressure.

The $105-$115 area has been important in the past, for example in July last year, when the price retested this area and rallied nearly as high as $300. In the past few months, no significant reaction was seen in this area except in January, when the price bounced from $110 to $140 but was quickly pushed lower.

In the past few weeks, the psychological $100 level has been lost to the bears. On lower timeframes, the $75 level had some significance. Due to the development of a hidden bearish divergence (white) between price and momentum, the $75-$80 area can be used to enter short positions.

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Rationale

Source: LTC/USDT on TradingView

In the past two weeks, the RSI has registered a higher high (white) while the price made a lower high. This hidden bearish divergence is a signal of a continuation of the downtrend, and the $60-$66 area could be retested once again and possibly broken. The RSI has also been below the neutral 50 since April, to show an ongoing bearish trend.

The Awesome Oscillator was also well beneath the zero line to show strong downward momentum. The OBV slid lower as well and was beneath the support it established in March. The Chaikin Money Flow climbed back above the -0.05 mark, but could soon be pushed lower.

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Conclusion

The indicators showed strong selling pressure and consistent bearish momentum, while the price charts also showed a bearish structure. The $75 area could be used to enter short positions on the coin.

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Altcoins

Litecoin [LTC] investors could watch out for these levels in weeks ahead

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Litecoin [LTC] investors could watch out for these levels in weeks ahead

Disclaimer: The findings of the following analysis are the sole opinions of the writer and should not be considered investment advice

Earlier this week, the MimbleWimble upgrade was announced for Litecoin and the price had zero bullish reaction to this news. This is actually a common feature of bearish markets, where fear moves the price and good news barely leaves a trace as it comes and goes. The bearish structure of Litecoin has been in place for nearly eight months now, and the bottom might not be in yet.

LTC- 1 Day Chart

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Source: LTC/USDT on TradingView

The daily chart showed Litecoin to be in a downtrend from mid-November on the higher timeframes. This holds true for many altcoins across the market. In February and March, the $100 area was held as support for LTC, but the selling pressure of April weakened the bids in this area, and the price was able to break lower in late April.

In the past two weeks, the $80 mark has also been breached and retested as resistance as well. Further south, the $52.5 and $40 levels are likely to act as support levels in the weeks to come.

The market structure is decisively bearish on the higher timeframes, and the levels to watch out for are $52 and $80 as support and resistance levels, respectively.

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Rationale

Source: LTC/USDT on TradingView

The RSI on the daily dropped to 23 to denote extreme bearish momentum. A relief bounce could occur in the next few days, but the trend would remain bearish overall. Not only has the price formed a series of lower highs and lower lows, but also, the momentum indicators showed seller dominance.

The RSI has stayed below neutral 50 on the daily chart since early April, and the Awesome Oscillator has been below the zero line too. Moreover, the OBV has been steadily declining, a finding that is in line with the bearish trend.

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The Chaikin Money Flow dropped back below the -0.05 mark in recent days, in response to the intense selling pressure.

Conclusion

The indicators showed the momentum to be in the hands of the bears, and the market structure was also bearish. Even if Litecoin can climb past the $80 mark, the trend would still be in favor of the bears. Resistance lies further higher in the $100 area as well, and buying opportunities might not arise until these resistances are broken.

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