Bitcoin price seems to have found its stable footing at $29,100 after a recent flash crash below it. This quick recovery and retest will be a testament to the bulls’ power and determine the next course of action for BTC.
Bitcoin price to provide temporary gains
Bitcoin price created a bearish continuation pattern known as a bear flag between November 2021 and April 2022. After a brief consolidation in late April, BTC triggered a breakout from the setup, triggering a massive sell-off.
The pattern contains a massive downswing known as “flagpole” followed by a consolidation phase known as “flag.” A breakout from this coiling-up often results in the price continuing its descent, which is why the setup is referred to as the continuation pattern.
This technical formation forecasts a 46% downswing, determined by adding the flagpole’s height to the breakout point. On April 22, BTC breached the flag’s lower trend line at $40,032, forecasting a target of $21,584.
So far, the post-FOMC volatility combined with the LUNA-UST debacle has stirred the market and caused it to crash violently. As a result, BTC dropped to $25,333, taking altcoins with it. However, the recovery of Bitcoin price seems to be going well as it is back above the $29,100 support level.
If bulls can manage a successful retest, it will reveal that a further uptrend is likely. In such a case, investors can expect a move to $35,100. This uptrend would constitute a total of 17% gain and is likely where the upside is capped.
Further removing the uncertainty for the retail investors’ minds is the recent tweet from the Luna Foundation Guard (LFG). The announcement stated that LFG has sold 80,081BTC from its reserve that held 80,394 BTC.
1/ As of Saturday, May 7, 2022, the Luna Foundation Guard held a reserve consisting of the following assets:
· 80,394 $BTC
· 39,914 $BNB
· 26,281,671 $USDT
· 23,555,590 $USDC
· 1,973,554 $AVAX
· 697,344 $UST
· 1,691,261 $LUNA
— LFG | Luna Foundation Guard (@LFG_org) May 16, 2022
This news suggests that a further sell-off seems unlikely, which could push buyers to start bidding.
The tweet further stated,
“The Foundation is looking to use its remaining assets to compensate remaining users of $UST, smallest holders first. We are still debating through various distribution methods, updates to follow soon.”
Supporting this outlook for Bitcoin price is the supply on the exchanges chart. This index tracks the number of BTC held on exchanges, which could be interpreted as a potential sell-side pressure. In case of a sell-off, investors would not think twice and could panic sell, causing a cascade of sell orders that could steepen the downswing.
However, for Bitcoin, the number of tokens held on centralized entities has fallen by 50,000 BTC, denoting an effective decline in the potential sell pressure. This development falls in line with the bullish outlook from a technical perspective
Therefore, investors can expect BTC to rally in the near future.
What of Ethereum now that $1.4B worth of ETH are sold
Ethereum [ETH], the king of altcoins has failed to register any significant improvement in the month of June. It is still stuck with the bears at the $1k level. Notably, this level was previously visited by the coin at a time when the market crash wiped out 46.4% of the ETH’s value. But with Q3 of 2022, circumstances might take a positive turn for ETH holders.
Ethereum needs a boost
Observing the entire Ethereum network, one can simply say that Ethereum needs a boost from its investors. Well, on the fundamental level, the network is making progress in all directions. Evidently, the arrival of ETH 2.0 and anticipation of ‘Merge’ has somewhat failed to accelerate ETH’s growth.
Thus, it’s important that the broader market cues turn positive at once since ETH is currently dependent on it. The bearishness prevalent in the market over the past couple of weeks has blocked Ethereum’s all attempts to rally. Consequently, investors have been forced to sell and prevent further losses.
In the month of June alone, about 1.3 million ETH worth over $1.45 billion was sent back to exchanges, most of which was a part of panic selling that was triggered by the crash of 9 June.
However, most of this selling did not come from Ethereum’s loyalists, the long-term HODLers. Primarily, because the HODL waves made it evident that the one-month to three-month cohort took the charge of selling.
Their control over the supply reduced from 14% to a little over 9%, resulting in an increase in the domination of the HODLers who have held their supply for less than a month.
What is ETH looking for?
What Ethereum needs now is some patience from investors and a quick market-wide recovery. Patience because the investors need to hold off on moving their supply around until the mark price is at level with the buy price.
Doing the opposite of that may result in transactions that would be conducted at a loss, and such transactions combined have caused the spent output profit ratio to fall below 1.0.
Trading at $1,092 at press time, ETH needed to retrace its steps back to pre-June levels at the least to correct this decline, which may take a while considering the alt’s price decline of 5.2% in the last 24 hours.
FTT: Unraveling implications of recent drawdowns on technicals
FTT’s bearish break below the $28.7-level led the alt to retest and eventually breach the $25-support (now immediate resistance). The recent patterned break took a plunge below the seven-week trendline resistance (white, dashed) on the 4-hour timeframe.
A compelling close below the $25-level could expose FTT toward a downside before any bullish revival chances.
Due to the relatively high correlation with Bitcoin alongside the broader sentiment, the altcoin could see trend invalidations. At press time, FTT was trading at $25.127, down by 8.12% in the last 24 hours.
FTT 4-hour Chart
From a near-term outlook, FTT’s rising wedge breakdown has pulled the alt below its 20 EMA (red) and the 50 EMA (cyan). Furthermore, a convincing bearish crossover of these EMAs could impair the near-term buying efforts.
A close below the $25-level could aid near-term selling efforts to test the $23-$24 range in the coming sessions. However, an immediate bounce-back from the $25-zone could delay the bearish tendencies. In this case, the buyers would aim to test the 20 EMA near $26 before a reversal.
FTT Daily Chart
In this timeframe, FTT saw a strong reversal from the 38.2% level. sustained close below the 23.6% level could propel a low volatility phase in the $24-$25 range in the coming days. Thus, the potential shorting targets would remain in the $24-zone. Also, with increasing trading volumes, the 24-hour losses depicted a rather strong bear move.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) plunged below the midline after barely sustaining itself above the 50-mark. Looking at its south-looking tendencies, the buyers still had a long way to alter the broader outlook in their favor.
Also, the CMF dipped below the zero-line and reaffirmed the bearish strength. But any comebacks along its trendline support can aid near-term recovery efforts.
Given the break below the $25-level on the H4 alongside the patterned break and bearish indications on the daily timeframe, FTT could test the $23-$24 range. The targets would remain the same as mentioned above.
Any bearish invalidations should likely find a rebounding region in the $26-zone. Also, investors/traders must keep a close eye on Bitcoin’s movement as FTT shares a 58% 30-day correlation with the king coin.
Solana [SOL] traders going short can take-profit at this level
Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the opinion of the writer.
In a previous article, we explored how crucial the $37-$39 area was for the bulls to defend. If the bulls had been able to defend this demand zone, a move higher could have been on the cards for Solana. Yet, the selling pressure behind Bitcoin acted as a catalyst and sent many major altcoins reeling. Solana had been fighting to break above $42.5. At press time, it appeared to be headed back to a support level where the rally to $42 had begun.
SOL- 1 Day Chart
On the daily timeframe, some important levels close to the price were marked. The low of May, the swing high of June as well as the swing low, were all likely to be important levels in the weeks to come. A hidden bearish divergence (orange) developed just as the price knocked on the $42.5 mark. This signaled a continuation of the former downtrend, and SOL came tumbling down in recent days.
The swing low of May at $37.37 has acted as support and resistance over the past month. It was expected that the bulls would attempt to defend this zone, which was a support zone on lower timeframes.
Yet, the price crashed right through it and reinforced a bearish bias for Solana. Given the fact that Bitcoin also faced selling pressure, it appeared that the direction for SOL in the next few days would be southward.
SOL- 2-Hour Chart
The 2-hour chart showed the price to slip beneath the 38.2%retracement level and cruise lower. The $37.37 was broken and was not yet retested as resistance. The RSI approached oversold territory, while the Stochastic RSI was in the oversold region. Hence, a possible bounce toward the $37 area could occur before a subsequent drop in prices.
There is also the possibility of a move lower without a bounce from $33.75. The A/D line has been going lower and lower, and the selling pressure could see SOL drop without a bounce.
The $32 region was a good area for short positions to take-profit at. A bounce to $37 could offer an ideal entry. Short positions can use the Supertrend indicators to set a stop-loss. Both the daily and the hourly timeframes showed selling pressure behind Solana.
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