The entire crypto community got excited as Bitcoin [BTC] registered a slight uptick in the last few days. This development gave investors hope for a possible bull-rally in the coming days. Bitcoin’s value increased more than 5% in the last seven days.
Furthermore, at press time BTC was trading at $20,199.18 with a market capitalization of $386,873,518,560. However, several analysts and influencers are indicating that the excitement might as well turn into misery. They also predict a possible bear market condition over the coming days.
Caution, you may find bears ahead
BaroVirtual, an author and analyst at CryptoQuant, recently published an analysis that indicated a decline in BTC’s price. In his analysis, he pointed out something interesting that backed the above mentioned possibility.
According to the data shown, the current value of miner transfers to spot exchanges (hourly) stood at 10.4537 as of 14 September. This figure was a sign of bears as past records indicated that an increase in miners’ transfers to spot exchanges was often followed by a drop in BTC’s price.
Interestingly, a similar prediction was made by Mac, a popular Twitter-based crypto influencer. The Twitter user shared his thoughts that BTC could go down to $17,000 in the days to come.
$BTC / #Bitcoin
“Mac why aren’t you posting x10-x50 #altcoin lists?”
Because now isn’t the time to be exposed to the market. If you studied my pinned Tweets you know this.$BTC is going to ≈ $17,000.
Bull market will be back. I will bring u the next $MATIC n $SOL, patience. pic.twitter.com/ddca1voc28
— Mac 🐺 (@MacnBTC) September 14, 2022
But BTC just crossed the $20K mark…
Though these analyses and predictions suggested darker days ahead for the coin, several on-chain metrics indicated that things were in favor of BTC. For instance, BTC’s amount of supply last active> 10 years just reached an ATH of 2,516,080.091 BTC. This represented an increased trust of investors in the coin.
📈 #Bitcoin $BTC Amount of Supply Last Active> 10y just reached an ATH of 2,516,080.091 BTC
View metric:https://t.co/lBBwEqVviB pic.twitter.com/PNb7t71f6y
— glassnode alerts (@glassnodealerts) September 15, 2022
Moreover, Bitcoin’s exchange outflow volume (7d MA) just reached a one-month high, which can be taken as a sign of the bulls. BTC’s aSOPR was also green, which suggested a possible market bottom. This also pointed in the direction of an upcoming bull-run.
Not only did the on-chain metrics look bullish, but Moustache, a famous crypto influencer, also expressed his opinion regarding the current market condition. In his tweet, he mentioned that he believed that the market will rise in the near future.
Market goes down and people are fully bearish again.
I expect the opposite to happen:$BTC in ’18/’19:
-Double bottom with HL
-MA Ribbon Cross (50/100)
-After the MA Cross, $BTC increased by ~300%.
We are repeating EXACTLY the same structure.
Parabola next.. pic.twitter.com/s7GabGHJ4B
— 𝕄𝕠𝕦𝕤𝕥𝕒𝕔ⓗ𝕖 🧲 (@el_crypto_prof) September 14, 2022
Sleuth Discovers Satoshi’s Long-Lost Bitcoin Version 0.1 Codebase, Raw Code Contains Bitcoin Inventor’s Never-Before-Seen Personal Notations
On October 7, 2022, a bitcoin supporter named Jim Blasko explained that he discovered the oldest upload of Bitcoin’s version 0.1 codebase. The original code was thought to have been lost for more than a decade and with a “little browser hacking” Blasko was able to find the lost version 0.1 raw data and files stored on sourceforge.net.
Bitcoiner Scrapes Up the ‘Cleanest Original Version of Bitcoin’ Thought to Be Lost Forever
For well over ten years, Satoshi Nakamoto’s version 0.1 codebase was thought to be lost. If one is to search, it’s extremely difficult to find and some people have discovered bits and pieces of the code. Bitcoiner Jim Blasko revealed on October 7 via a Facebook post that using a touch of browser hacking he was able to scrape up the long-lost code. After explaining a bit of history, Blasko detailed that it took Bitcoin’s creator roughly six months to mine the inventor’s stash of 1 million BTC.
“Satoshi would take at least 6 months to mine 1 million bitcoin,” Blasko’s post explains. “As block 20,000 wouldn’t come until July 22nd, 2009, and others like Hal [Finney] were mining as well, so at least this time or shortly thereafter. [The network’s difficulty] was only 1 at the time and basic [CPU] mining would continue for a couple of years.” Furthermore, the bitcoiner explained that in late August 2009, Martti Malmi uploaded the raw code of Bitcoin v0.1 to sourceforge.net.
“Since 2012 it was thought that the raw code and the files were gone as they had been scraped from the Sourceforge search engine for some reason,” Blasko’s post says. “I know many users [were] looking for the original v0.1 code for a very long time and Hal Finney was planning to email it to some people in 2012, but his health was poor and by his own words didn’t get online much to respond,” the crypto researcher adds.
Blasko’s post continues:
I’m not sure if Hal ever did send it out, as Hal was the earliest to receive Bitcoin v0.1 code from Satoshi. Either way, I did some digging and I was able to find the original code still on Sourceforge using some browser hacking.
Via Blasko’s discovery, the hidden code uploaded on August 30, 2009 can be found here and here. Blasko’s discovery is unique because it is the very first version of Bitcoin presented in an untampered way and it contains all of Satoshi’s personal notations in the early codebase. Blasko said that he was aware that there are existing versions of Bitcoin version 0.1’s codebase on Github, however, he believes it’s “the cleanest original version of Bitcoin.”
In the codebase, Nakamoto explains things like why base-58 was chosen instead of standard base-64 encoding, and other notations like things the inventor planned “to do” later in the future. There’s also a great description of the original Bitcoin operations codes (opcodes) and what each one does. Opcodes such as OP_CHECKSIG, OP_CHECKSIGVERIFY, OP_CHECKMULTISIG, and OP_CHECKMULTISIGVERIFY.
Tags in this story
1 million BTC, 2009, 2009 codebase, Bitcoin, Bitcoin (BTC), Bitcoin codebase, Bitcoin v0.1 code, Bitcoin Version 0.1 Codebase, CPU Mining, crypto researcher, crypto sleuth, crypto slueth, difficulty, github, Hal Finney, Jim Blasko, long-lost code, mining, Nakamoto, network, Satoshi, Satoshi Nakamoto, Sourceforge, Sourceforge repo
What do you think about Jim Blasko’s early Bitcoin codebase discovery? Let us know what you think about this subject in the comments section below.
Jamie Redman is the News Lead at Bitcoin.com News and a financial tech journalist living in Florida. Redman has been an active member of the cryptocurrency community since 2011. He has a passion for Bitcoin, open-source code, and decentralized applications. Since September 2015, Redman has written more than 6,000 articles for Bitcoin.com News about the disruptive protocols emerging today.
Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons, Editorial photo credit: Valery Brozhinsky / Shutterstock.com and Sourceforge
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not a direct offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation or endorsement of any products, services, or companies. Bitcoin.com does not provide investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.
Has Bitcoin Price Broken Out Of Downtrend Resistance? BTCUSD Analysis October 6, 2022
I’m Tony Spilotro. Behind the pseudonym, I’m a global remote work leader with a decade of award-winning content experience and excellence. Here, I explore my newfound passions pertaining to privacy, finance, economics, politics, cryptography, property rights, and other libertarian-esque views. I am a Bitcoin evangelist, maximalist, and educator whenever I can be, helping to spread its message of freedom from government control, monetary policy mismanagement, and passing the buck – literally – to future generations. My journey from a curious retail crypto investor to a serious Bitcoin advocate, trader, and technical analyst is an unusual one, but life-changing nonetheless and has become less about money and more about a long-overdue revolution. While a firm believer in the laws governing math and science, I am profoundly fascinated by the impact of astrology and astronomy including moon and solar cycles and planetary alignment and their ability to influence and potentially predict markets. It hasn’t yet clicked for me as to how to put anything to use, but I consider it my current rabbit hole I can’t yet dig out of. My perspective of growing up alongside the internet, the dot com era, the Great Recession, and roots in video games collecting coins and rare items caused Bitcoin to immediately make sense to me. Through all of these lenses, I seek to produce content that is educational and entertaining, and I thank you sincerely for taking the time to read what I have to say. Please follow me on Twitter at @tonyspilotroBTC and feel free to drop me a line if you would like to work together.
Why “Rosy” Earnings Estimates Might Hurt Bitcoin As Price Struggles At $20,000
Bitcoin continues to lose momentum on low timeframes, as bulls were unable to follow through on yesterday’s upside impulse. The cryptocurrency was rejected around the mid-area of its current levels and might be bound for a fresh re-test of local support.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin price trades at $20,000 with a 1% loss and a 3% profit in the last 24 hours and 7 days, respectively. Despite its negative price performance, BTC remains relatively strong when compared with other cryptocurrencies in the top 10 by market cap.
Bitcoin At Record Correlation With Gold And Equities In 2022
Data from Kraken Intelligence shows that Bitcoin has been increasing its correlation with risk-on assets, and with other traditional assets in the legacy financial market. This phenomenon has been common across 2022, as global markets move in tandem reacting to the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed).
The financial institution has been trying to slow down inflation in the U.S. dollar by hiking interest rates. This has brought negative consequences across all assets class.
As seen in the charts below, the price of Bitcoin saw a decline in its correlation with major equities indexes, the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500. In the past months, this correlation stood at its low below 0.5 but is re-approaching high correlation levels at around 0.8 and 0.74, respectively.
Something similar is happening with Gold and U.S. Treasuries. Unlike stocks, Bitcoin has been less correlated to the precious metal and U.S. Treasuries, but that appears to be changing in light of the increase in economic uncertainty.
Earnings Seasons Might Cap Bitcoin Bullish Momentum
This data suggest that Bitcoin might be more and more susceptible to events related to stock and major indices. Jurrien Timmer, Director of Macro for Investment firm Fidelity, believes the upcoming earnings season might bring hurdles for traditional assets.
Timmer supports his theory on the recent rally in the U.S. Dollar, as measured by the DXY Index. This tool allows market participants to get a sense of the strength of the dollar compared mostly to the Japanese Yen, the British pound, and the Euro.
We see the same disconnect in the chart below, when comparing the dollar’s rate of change to the expected EPS growth rate (NTM divided by LTM). Estimates should be coming down faster, it seems. /4 pic.twitter.com/G49jAMu0Y0
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) October 6, 2022
The higher the DXY Index, the weaker these other currencies, and other risk-on assets by extension, such as Bitcoin. Timmer claims that 40% of the S&P revenue comes from abroad which could lead to a noticeable negative impact on profit margins and U.S. companies’ earnings. The expert wrote:
Expectations are for revenue growth to fall to 4% and stay there. Given that the DXY’s rate of change is +19%, that seems too high. So, based on the dollar and market breadth, we might get some negative earnings surprises.
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