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Bitcoin: Mapping out the odds of a BTC rally in the short-term

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Bitcoin: Mapping out the odds of a BTC rally in the short-term

Disclaimer: The findings of the following analysis are the sole opinions of the writer and should not be considered investment advice.

Bitcoin (BTC) headed south after a downswing from the $39,000-ceiling post its falling wedge (white) breakout. While the near-term trajectory unequivocally revealed a bearish vigor, BTC HODLers were keen on defending the $34,423-mark baseline.

While gains diminished over the past few sessions, the immediate support level could delay the crypto’s steep southbound fall. A comfortable close above the upper boundary of the pitchfork could expose BTC to a retest of the $35,800-zone before a committal move. At press time, BTC was trading at $34,770, down by 3.67%in the last 24 hours.

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BTC 4-hour Chart

Source: TradingView, BTC/USD

Soon after dropping from its ATH, BTC saw a gradual but consistent collapse on its peaks. The plunge phase transposed into compression between the $34,423 and $46,643 that lasted for over four months now. The recent bearish force heightened after the bulls failed to uphold the three-month trendline support (now resistance) (white, dashed). 

The largest crypto lost nearly 27.64% in the last month after nosediving from its early April highs. Without a surprise, the Supertrend refused to alter its bearish stance for the most part. With the rising gap between 20 EMA (red) and the 50 EMA (cyan), the fate of the immediate trend still rested with the sellers. 

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But there is a ray of hope for the investors as buyers have upheld the $34,400-level for the last nine months. So, a possible revival from this baseline could position BTC to challenge the bounds of its Pitchfork and challenge the $35,000-resistance. The 20 EMA would likely pose hurdles in this revival phase.

Rationale

Source: TradingView, BTC/USD

The RSI’s 43-point downfall from 4 may finally rested at the 22-mark support. A revival from its current oversold lows would only be likely in the coming times. However, the magnitude of this revival will depend on the willingness of the buyers to ramp up the buying volumes.

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Additionally, the On balance Volume undertook a bullish divergence with price in the last two days. This reading resonated with the comeback possibility in the coming days.

Conclusion

In view of the long-term willingness of the buyers to hold on to the $34,400-zone alongside the bullish divergence with OBV and oversold readings on RSI, Bitcoin revealed good chances for a near-term revival. The 20/50 EMA would be a critical factor in determining the long-term movements of the king coin.

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With a background in financial analysis and reporting, Yash is a full-time journalist at AMBCrypto. He has a keen interest in blockchain technology, with a primary focus on technical analysis of cryptocurrencies.

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Altcoins

Binance Coin [BNB]: Don’t overlook these crucial indicators

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Binance Coin [BNB]: Don’t overlook these crucial indicators

Disclaimer: The findings of the following analysis are the sole opinions of the writer and should not be considered investment advice

As the dust seemingly settled in the altcoin market, Binance Coin’s (BNB) price took shape within a bearish rising wedge (yellow). The end of this tight phase could result in a sharp swing in either direction.

With the price finally breaching the basis line (green) of the Bollinger Bands (BB), the buyers affirmed the gradual increase in their influence. But, with slightly weak indications on its technicals, the buyers need to negate the selling pressure on high volumes.

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At press time, BNB was trading at $315.9, down by 2.97% in the last 24 hours. 

BNB Daily Chart

Source: TradingView, BNB/USDT

After bouncing back from the $268-support, BNB formed a rising wedge on its 4-hour chart. Now, there are two possibilities from this. Should the pattern function as a continuation of the previous downtrend, a further drawdown will be likely. A bearish outcome would expose the alt to a potential test of the Point of Control (POC, red) before any further pulldown.

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To affirm this outcome, bears would need to enforce a close below the lower trendline of the wedge. With the BB looking to curb its current volatility, the potential decline might enter a squeeze phase in the coming sessions.

On the other hand, there are chances for the buyers to step in at the $307-support. This trajectory may be possible due to the alt’s recent streak of higher troughs. An upwards breakout would position BNB toward the $357-level in the days to come. A close above $326 would boost the probability of this upswing.

Rationale

Source: TradingView, BNB/USDT

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The 4-hour RSI was denied a break above its half-line as it plunged lower towards the 44-zone. Furthermore, the -DI moved parallel with the +DI line and suggested that a bearish trend is still active.

Also, capital inflows took a hit while the CMF struggled to cross the zero-mark. However, any bounce-back from its current support range would confirm a bullish divergence.

Conclusion

Looking at its press time setup, BNB tilted slightly towards the selling market. The investors should watch out for a break outside of the current pattern to make any potential calls. Finally, keeping an eye on Bitcoin’s movement and the broader sentiment would be important to complement the aforementioned analysis.

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Altcoins

Stellar: Answer the Q whether HODLing is still the way to go

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Stellar: Answer the Q whether HODLing is still the way to go

Disclaimer: The findings of the following analysis are the sole opinions of the writer and should not be considered investment advice

At the time of writing, Stellar (XLM) was sailing below the lower boundary of its Pitchfork after the latest bearish engulfing candlestick on its daily chart. The latest selling spree has set up a bearish structure for XLM.

Any close below the current pattern could spiral into further losses by paving a pathway towards the $0.12-zone. At press time, XLM was trading at $0.1283.

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XLM Daily Chart

Source: TradingView, XLM/USD

Since XLM flipped towards the south from the $0.4-zone, the bears found renewed pressure to pull the alt and test the $0.16-mark (previous support). After a liquidation streak, the recent bearish phase saw a drawdown from this mark after an over 45% weekly decline towards its 17-month low on 12 May.

With the current structure exhibiting bearishness, the bulls need to make extraordinary efforts to halt the ongoing selling momentum. For this, they still need to propel high buying volumes. The current bearish pennant setup could play spoilsport for recent buying endeavours.

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Any close below the pattern could lead to a near-term pullback towards the $0.12-baseline. Post which, the bulls would be keen to bridge the overextended gap between the 20 EMA (red) and the 50 EMA (cyan). In this case, a close above the Pitchfork would reignite the possibilities for any recovery. 

Rationale

Source: TradingView, XLM/USD

The RSI underlined a visible selling edge while compressing in the 36-41 range. The investors/traders must watch out for a break beyond the current bounds to enter either buy/sell calls.

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Over the last four days, the bearish CMF marked lower peaks on the daily timeframe. But, any bounce-back from the -0.1-mark would confirm the existence of a bullish divergence with the price.  

Conclusion

Looking at the prevailing bearish pattern coupled with weak buying volumes, sustaining a rally for the bulls would be relatively tougher. Any break below the pennant could lead to short-term losses or an extended tight phase before the buyers show up. 

Besides, investors/traders should factor in the broader market sentiment and on-chain developments to make a profitable move.

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With a background in financial analysis and reporting, Yash is a full-time journalist at AMBCrypto. He has a keen interest in blockchain technology, with a primary focus on technical analysis of cryptocurrencies.

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Analysis

Bitcoin, Gold and Bonds could dominate 2022 – Bloomberg Intelligence

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Bitcoin, Gold and Bonds could dominate 2022 – Bloomberg Intelligence

U.K. · U.S.› Bitcoin › Analysis

As global equity markets continue their downtrend, a global commodities expert from Bloomberg believes that Bitcoin may be part of an group of assets to dominate in 2022

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2 min read

Updated: May 24, 2022 at 2:42 pm

Cover art/illustration via CryptoSlate

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Disclaimer: This article contains technical analysis, which is a methodology for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. The content presented in this article is the opinion of the author. None of the information you read on CryptoSlate should be taken as investment advice. Buying and trading cryptocurrencies should be considered a high-risk activity. Please do your own diligence and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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Inflation is arguably out of control globally, with rates hitting as high as 9% in the U.K. while the M1 money supply grows. The stock markets have taken a massive hit, with over $7 trillion wiped off the Nasdaq in the last four months.

A senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, Mike McGlone, said:

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“If stocks are going limp, Bitcoin, Gold, and Bonds could rule.”

McGlone shared the chart below to support his claim.

Source: Twitter

This spread chart shows the U.S. Treasury 10-year bond yield in orange and the price of Bitcoin against the NASDAQ 100 over the past four years. At the bottom of the Bitcoin bear market, around 2018, the chart shows a double bottom ratio of 0.5 before rising to 2.0 in early 2021.

The ability of Bitcoin to hold the 2.0 ratio since January 2021 indicates that it is performing well amid its first potential recession. The last extended global recession occurred due to the 2008 financial crisis, which was a year before the birth of Bitcoin.

Since its inception, Bitcoin has flourished in a thriving global economy. The COVID-19 hurdle of early 2020 was surpassed due to trillions of dollars flooding into circulation, much of which made its way into cryptocurrency. As the world deals with the impact of the rapid increase in money supply, Bitcoin appears to be holding firm compared to other risk-on investments.

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McGlone states that “Greater Risk in About a Year May Be #Deflation.” However, his overall sentiment continues to focus on the ability of Bitcoin and Gold to outperform the market in the near future. 

“Following an extended period of outperformance, an underperformance period may be overdue for the #stockmarket, which may shine on #gold and #Bitcoin. The BOLD1 Index (gold, bitcoin combo) has kept pace with the Nasdaq 100 Stock Index in a bull market and with lower volatility.”

The supporting chart shows the declining volatility of BOLD1 against the NASDAQ 100 index since 2019.

Source: Twitter

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