Disclaimer: The findings of the following analysis are the sole opinions of the writer and should not be considered investment advice
Bitcoin climbed back above the $30k mark in recent hours, and the Bitcoin Dominance metric was falling on 17 May. This could be an early sign that, over the next couple of days, altcoins could be set to rally from their recent lows.
The price action of Ethereum Classic did not really favor either the bulls or the bears, although the indicators showed a slight bullish bias. Now the question is- Do the buyers have enough strength to move ETC northward to the $23-$24 area?
ETC 1-Hour Chart
The Volume Profile Visible Range showed the Point of Control to lie at $20.89. This is the level where the most trading, by volume, has occurred in the range visible on the charts. The Value Area Highs and Lows lie at $25.5 and $16.86 respectively for ETC.
Since the price was trading above the POC, it meant that the bulls had some strength, and could drive prices toward the next node of high trading volume at $24.
As long as the price remains above the $20 mark, there is a chance that the prices can be pushed higher by buyers.
The RSI on the hourly chart climbed above neutral 50 once again, however, it has been oscillating between the 40 and 60 values in the past four days. Therefore, the momentum was neutral with a bullish tinge, as each move upward was defended.
The MACD was on the verge of climbing above the zero line as well, and it would be another signal of bullish momentum for ETC. In the meantime, the A/D indicator was, very slowly, rising in the past few days. Hence, the inference is that bulls had a slight upper hand in recent days.
The bulls were able to push ETC above the POC, and there was some faint buying pressure in the past few days. Therefore, a rally upward can be expected for Ethereum Classic.
However, while this was a likelihood, Bitcoin was also likely to have a huge influence on the direction of the Ethereum Classic in the next few hours. As things stand, the low timeframe bias for ETC leaned toward the bulls.
What of Ethereum now that $1.4B worth of ETH are sold
Ethereum [ETH], the king of altcoins has failed to register any significant improvement in the month of June. It is still stuck with the bears at the $1k level. Notably, this level was previously visited by the coin at a time when the market crash wiped out 46.4% of the ETH’s value. But with Q3 of 2022, circumstances might take a positive turn for ETH holders.
Ethereum needs a boost
Observing the entire Ethereum network, one can simply say that Ethereum needs a boost from its investors. Well, on the fundamental level, the network is making progress in all directions. Evidently, the arrival of ETH 2.0 and anticipation of ‘Merge’ has somewhat failed to accelerate ETH’s growth.
Thus, it’s important that the broader market cues turn positive at once since ETH is currently dependent on it. The bearishness prevalent in the market over the past couple of weeks has blocked Ethereum’s all attempts to rally. Consequently, investors have been forced to sell and prevent further losses.
In the month of June alone, about 1.3 million ETH worth over $1.45 billion was sent back to exchanges, most of which was a part of panic selling that was triggered by the crash of 9 June.
However, most of this selling did not come from Ethereum’s loyalists, the long-term HODLers. Primarily, because the HODL waves made it evident that the one-month to three-month cohort took the charge of selling.
Their control over the supply reduced from 14% to a little over 9%, resulting in an increase in the domination of the HODLers who have held their supply for less than a month.
What is ETH looking for?
What Ethereum needs now is some patience from investors and a quick market-wide recovery. Patience because the investors need to hold off on moving their supply around until the mark price is at level with the buy price.
Doing the opposite of that may result in transactions that would be conducted at a loss, and such transactions combined have caused the spent output profit ratio to fall below 1.0.
Trading at $1,092 at press time, ETH needed to retrace its steps back to pre-June levels at the least to correct this decline, which may take a while considering the alt’s price decline of 5.2% in the last 24 hours.
FTT: Unraveling implications of recent drawdowns on technicals
FTT’s bearish break below the $28.7-level led the alt to retest and eventually breach the $25-support (now immediate resistance). The recent patterned break took a plunge below the seven-week trendline resistance (white, dashed) on the 4-hour timeframe.
A compelling close below the $25-level could expose FTT toward a downside before any bullish revival chances.
Due to the relatively high correlation with Bitcoin alongside the broader sentiment, the altcoin could see trend invalidations. At press time, FTT was trading at $25.127, down by 8.12% in the last 24 hours.
FTT 4-hour Chart
From a near-term outlook, FTT’s rising wedge breakdown has pulled the alt below its 20 EMA (red) and the 50 EMA (cyan). Furthermore, a convincing bearish crossover of these EMAs could impair the near-term buying efforts.
A close below the $25-level could aid near-term selling efforts to test the $23-$24 range in the coming sessions. However, an immediate bounce-back from the $25-zone could delay the bearish tendencies. In this case, the buyers would aim to test the 20 EMA near $26 before a reversal.
FTT Daily Chart
In this timeframe, FTT saw a strong reversal from the 38.2% level. sustained close below the 23.6% level could propel a low volatility phase in the $24-$25 range in the coming days. Thus, the potential shorting targets would remain in the $24-zone. Also, with increasing trading volumes, the 24-hour losses depicted a rather strong bear move.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) plunged below the midline after barely sustaining itself above the 50-mark. Looking at its south-looking tendencies, the buyers still had a long way to alter the broader outlook in their favor.
Also, the CMF dipped below the zero-line and reaffirmed the bearish strength. But any comebacks along its trendline support can aid near-term recovery efforts.
Given the break below the $25-level on the H4 alongside the patterned break and bearish indications on the daily timeframe, FTT could test the $23-$24 range. The targets would remain the same as mentioned above.
Any bearish invalidations should likely find a rebounding region in the $26-zone. Also, investors/traders must keep a close eye on Bitcoin’s movement as FTT shares a 58% 30-day correlation with the king coin.
Can Shiba Inu’s dissociation from Bitcoin help SHIB rally in Q3
The second quarter of 2022 has come to an end. And with it, Shiba Inu [SHIB] successfully completed the third consecutive quarter making no significant progress on the charts. But with an exciting development taking place on-chain, there is a chance SHIB might make some progress over the next three months.
Shiba Inu is on a path
The meme coin was floating on its month-long rally from September 2021, which placed SHIB amongst the top cryptocurrencies. However, since then, a downtrend is all Shiba Inu has known, resulting in the 87.31% depreciation from its all-time high.
When observing on a micro-scale, the token seems to be doing better. However, the situation is no better than it was a month ago on the macro scale. SHIB has only managed to recover from the crash of June, which too is hardly sustainable, as the cryptocurrency dropped by another 9% in the last 24 hours.
Even so, what stands out is the fact that SHIB’s price action is imitating that of Bitcoin [BTC]. Although the intensity of the rise and fall are certainly varying, their patterns appear to be similar.
This is because up until a week ago, the meme coin shared a high correlation of 0.9 with Bitcoin, which resulted in the aforementioned similarities. However, at the time of writing, this correlation dropped to 0.52. Now if this metric drops further, it might give SHIB a fighting chance against the broader market’s bearishness.
Where does SHIB stand now?
An important observation to be made is the price indicators’ current status. The MACD’s bullishness is receding, and the altcoin is inching towards a bearish crossover at the same time. The active uptrend is also losing strength and will ultimately lose it if the Average Directional Index (ADX) falls below 25.0 (ref. Shiba Inu price action image).
Some counter to the aforementioned information comes in the form of buy and sell orders from investors where the former is outperforming the latter thanks to the recent rise.
Buy orders are currently exceeding the sell orders by at least 580 billion SHIB.
Regardless, considering the rise in Shiba Inu’s volatility, the coin appears pretty vulnerable to a price swing. Thus, investors looking to enter would be better off until there are clear indications of either a rise or a fall.
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