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Fed’s Rate Hike Anticipation Hovers, Bitcoin Price Could Bottom At $13k

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Fed’s Rate Hike Anticipation Hovers, Bitcoin Price Could Bottom At $13k

Today Bitcoin (BTC) price tumbles again. All this price action is seen ahead of the Federal Reserve’s highly expected rise in interest rates today.

At the moment, Bitcoin is trading at $21,130 with a fall of 5.80% over the last 24hrs.

The flagship currency plunged 15% on Monday, the most in a single day since March 2020. The currency  lost over 50 % of its value this year and more than 20% on Friday.  It has dropped over 70% since its all-time high of $69,000 in November.

The focus is now on how the currency will respond to a Fed rate rise later in the day. BTC plummeted after the Fed hiked interest rates in May, and it is expected to do so again.

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If the current decline continues, technical indicators indicate that Bitcoin price might go as low as $13,000. The coin is also suffering from broader uncertainty in the crypto market.

Fed’s Impact On Bitcoin Price

BTC fell by more than 8% when the Fed hiked interest rates on May 4. It subsequently fell another 28% in the following week, to as low as $28,000, as the crypto crisis worsened.

The Fed hiked rates by 50 basis points (bps) last time. Given the increasing inflation, traders are now preparing for a 75 basis point raise by the Fed, according to CME Group data. If it happens, this will be the Fed’s most aggressive rate rise in near times.

The action will reverse two years of easy financial regulation that had pushed cryptocurrency markets to all-time highs. It also indicates that the central bank is anxious about a possible recession caused by increasing inflation.

Considerably, a recession poses greater difficulty for retail-exposed, risky investments like Bitcoin and cryptocurrency.

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Bitcoin Price To Hit $13,000 ?

Bitcoin might go as low as $13,000, according to veteran trader Peter Brandt, as it forms a double top formation. An unfavorable sign from the Fed is likely to confirm this move.

If Bitcoin price falls below $20,000, it will start off a chain reaction of liquidations. This results in more coins being sold on the open market.

In the last two days, the coin’s liquidation stands at approximately $1 billion in holdings. Now this trend is expected to continue.

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin: On-chain metrics to consider in this bear cycle before going…

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Bitcoin: On-chain metrics to consider in this bear cycle before going…

The crypto market has had quite a ride this month after bearish waves struck down major cryptocurrencies. The global crypto market capitalization also fell below $1 trillion leading to failing crypto institutions such as 3AC and Celsius. Bitcoin also suffered heavy drawbacks during the period.

BTC reached its lowest levels since December 2020 after dropping below $17,750. Starting the month at around $32,200, the largest-sized crypto has taken a lot of heat and at press time, it was trading at $21,000. The king coin was up by more than 2% in the past day and was just down 0.05% during the week. This was a good signal of recovery after treading through bearish downturns early in June.

Nearing market bottom

On-chain data analytics platform CryptoQuant released the latest update surrounding Bitcoin. It stated that the current BTC price is undervalued. Most on-chain indicators indicate that we are close to a market bottom for Bitcoin.

BTC’s indicator of Net Unrealized Profit/Loss was hovering around -0.06, at press time. This is the initial signal for nearing a market bottom. In the latest crypto crash, there were many addresses that recorded losses when BTC reached the 18-month bottom of $17,744.

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Source: CryptoQuant

According to CryptoQuant, the MVRV ratio has fallen significantly during the current run. At press time, it was estimated at around 0.93, suggesting an undervaluation of BTC.

Source: CryptoQuant

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There was, however, a little spike in Miner’s Position Index but it was still estimated at -0.6. This means that miners are circulating more than their daily distribution in the moving average of the YTD.

Miners have also increasingly offloaded their holdings to exchanges. This can indicate that some miners’ revenue cannot meet the break-even point.

Source: CryptoQuant

For many investors, this is a good time to start accumulating again if they want to recoup their losses. With the regulatory proposal for digital assets already in place in the United States, there is still hope for a bullish surge in the coming months.

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Kanav is a journalist at AMBCrypto. He has a Masters in Media and International Conflict and is interested in areas of digital society, crypto developments in the political sphere and the socio-cultural impact of a crypto-society.

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Bitcoin [BTC]: Assessing how deep are we into the bear market

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Bitcoin [BTC]: Assessing how deep are we into the bear market

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency has had its fair share of bear markets experiences in the past. But, after every bear cycle, the king coin has managed to recover successfully. Now, the question is- Can BTC repeat the same this time around?

Highlighting the norms

Bitcoin, at press time, circulated in the $20k to $21k range after suffering massive sell-offs. Some harsh liquidation scenarios even recorded figures in billions. These conditions have directly impacted BTC’s price as it led to more drawdowns.

The Bitcoin drawdown from ATH has reached 73.3%, compared to previous bear market lows of between 75% and 84% in the graph. But, as past bore the witness, BTC has reclaimed a top spot every time after witnessing a bearish run.

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Source: Glassnode

According to Glassnode, past all-time high (ATH) duration stood at 435 days from the Apr-2021 ATH and 227 days from the Nov-2021 ATH. This firmly placed the current bear within historical bear norms.

That being said, the divergence between BTC’s address activity and price marked the most optimistic level since December 2020. Consider this- the number of unique addresses interacting on the network didn’t fall as much as it may seem after a 70% price retracement since November.

Source: Santiment

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The divergence between active addresses and price was last this high in December 2020. Thus, indicating that a price increase is possible. In addition, Bitcoin recorded significant whale transactions as well. It merely indicates that the major stakeholders might be keen on the token despite the FUD and inflation.

Whalin’ with caution

Furthermore, the largest Bitcoin holders on the blockchain added 16% more coins to their holdings over the last 30 days. At press time, the entity possessed over 776,000 BTC worth over $16 billion.

Source: ITB

This, indeed, could inject some optimism during such uncertain times. Following this development, number of addresses holding 0.1+ BTC saw an uptick as well. The metric on Glassnode reached an ATH of 3,615,634.

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Shubham is a full-time journalist at AMBCrypto. A Master’s graduate in Accounting and Finance, Shubham’s writings mainly focus on crypto-regulations across the United States and Europe. Also, a die-hard Chelsea fan #KTBFFH.

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Bitcoin Whale Presence On Derivatives Still High, More Volatility Ahead?

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Bitcoin Whale Presence On Derivatives Still High, More Volatility Ahead?

On-chain data shows Bitcoin whales are transferring large amounts to derivatives exchanges right now, a signal that more volatility could be ahead for the crypto.

Bitcoin All Exchanges To Derivatives Flow Continues To Show High Value

As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, BTC whale activity on derivatives exchanges still seems to be high.

The relevant indicator here is the “all exchanges to derivatives exchanges flow,” which measures the total amount of Bitcoin moving from spot exchange wallets to derivatives.

When the value of this metric spikes up, it means whales are currently moving a large number of coins to derivatives exchanges right now.

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Such a trend usually occurs around lows in the price of the crypto as whales look to get themselves long positions.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Recovery Slows Down As Whale Inflows Remain Elevated

On the other hand, low values of the indicator show whales aren’t moving much coins to derivatives at the moment. This kind of trend has historically lead to tops in the value of the coin.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin all exchanges to derivatives flow over the last couple of years:

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Looks like the value of the metric has been quite high recently | Source: CryptoQuant

As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin spot to derivatives flow has spiked up recently, suggesting that whale activity is pretty high right now.

In fact, the current value of the indicator is actually the highest ever in the history of the cryptocurrency, implying there is an all-time high rate of whales on derivatives currently.

Related Reading | Bitcoin May Have Hit Bottom According to These Indicators, BTC Targets $23K?

Historically, the price of the crypto has observed significant volatility whenever the metric’s value has been elevated.

Based on this trend, the quant believes that the value of the coin could still see further fluctuations in the near future.

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The analyst also notes that a reduction in the all exchanges to derivatives flow will need to be there, for the volatility to die down.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $21.1k, up 4% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 27% in value.

The below chart shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days.

The value of the crypto seems to have surged up over the last couple of days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

After hitting a low of below $18k a week ago, Bitcoin has been trying to recover. So far, the crypto has managed to break above $21k again, but it’s yet unclear whether this recovery will last.

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Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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