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Analysis

Is the NFT hype fizzling out or is there something else at play here

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Is the NFT hype fizzling out or is there something else at play here

Recently published report suggests a major downtrend in NFT sales. This led to calls of a worrying NFT market sentiment which are gradually being quashed after big performances recently.

Nonfungible published a report talking about the NFT market performance during the Q1 of 2022. The report has raised many eyebrows after being published, indicating a depleting culture of the NFTs.

The first quarter of 2022 has seen some worrying trends in the NFT market. There has been a 46% fall in the number of NFT sales. Moreover, the daily average sales have dropped to 19,000 per week, a 92% decline from a peak of about 225,000 in September 2021.

Source: Nonfungible

There has also been a near 30% drop in buyers for the NFT which is attributed to two reasons. The number of active traders has plummeted from almost a million accounts towards end of 2021 to about 491,000, as reported by NBC. With the flood of supply, there are about five NFTs for every buyer as per Chainalysis. The lack of scarcity, it seems, contributed to the downfall of NFTs.

Source: Nonfungible

Another developing trend is the 50% increase in total losses upon resell. One of the infamous examples is the attempted sale for an NFT of Jack Dorsey’s first tweet. He paid a reported $2.9 million in March 2021 for it and expected the resale to touch around $25 million. But, with a top bid of $6800, his efforts to sell it have run aground.

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But what about this data?

The Non-Fungible report suggested a scathing review of the NFT marketplace in Q1 of 2022. But latest data acquired from CryptoSlam, indicates a different trend for NFT performance as we enter May 2022.

In the previous 30 days, several leading blockchains have handled astronomical NFT sales volume. Ethereum is the leading blockchain, with Solana a distant second followed by Flow, Polygon and Avalanche.

Ethereum recorded a 66% growth in NFT sales standing at $3.9 billion. Much of it is formed by the “Otherdeed” and “Moonbirds” collections with their total sales valued at $1.3 billion. Solana accumulated a sales volume of $325 million after a 50% surge. The leading NFTs on this network are “Okay Bears” and “DeGods” valued at around $100 million.

Finally, the NFT global index by sales volume increased by 60% to $4.44 billion. The NFT market did drop towards the beginning of the year but is slowly gathering pace as the numbers indicate here.

Kanav is a journalist at AMBCrypto. He has a Masters in Media and International Conflict and is interested in areas of digital society, crypto developments in the political sphere and the socio-cultural impact of a crypto-society.

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Analysis

These indicators show how the equities sell-off is influencing crypto prices to fall down

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These indicators show how the equities sell-off is influencing crypto prices to fall down

Bitcoin · Ethereum › Analysis

US Equities correlations with cryptocurrencies is at an historic peak while most BTC holders are holding at a loss

3 min read

Updated: May 20, 2022 at 4:05 am

Cover art/illustration via CryptoSlate

Cryptocurrencies experienced on May 10 a large market crash, losing over 10% in a single day of most of the coins. This is the second time in 2022 that most cryptocurrencies have suffered a price loss of over 10%. Over the last month, BTC has accumulated a 23.57% loss while Ethereum has a 26.32%. Meanwhile, US equities suffered slightly more moderated losses: S&P 500 a -11.07% while Nasdaq 100 a -14.93%:

Price performance comparison with US equities according to IntoTheBlock Capital Market Insights.

As seen in the chart above, cryptocurrencies continue experiencing worse sell-offs than capital markets. The actual macro context of rising interest rates leads to most investors becoming averse to risky assets, which cryptocurrencies are due to their nature of highly volatile price performance.

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The origins of the May 10 price drop came from US equities markets turning back on their short-lived recovery of last week. As has been seen in the previous months, the 30-day correlation between the cryptocurrencies markets and US equities indexes continues to grow, and this week achieved an all-time high for both BTC and ETH, with around 0.9 points both for S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100:

Correlation Matrix with US equities according to IntoTheBlock Capital Market Insights.

A correlation coefficient close to 1 implies a strong positive correlation between the two prices, meaning that the price of BTC or ETH and these indices have a highly statistically significant relationship, so they will tend to move in the same direction. Understanding how these relationships evolve is essential to understanding how macro markets affect the cryptocurrency market and where to look for leading indicators of crypto price movements.

It is valuable to look internally at how crypto holders are reacting to the recent price moves despite external factors. Bitcoin continues dominating the crypto market, so it is worth looking at what its on-chain data shows us.

As studied before, investors are sensitive to react when their investments turn around and stop being in a profiting position. BTC is recently reaching a critical position, where almost half (47.8%) of the addresses holding BTC would be losing money if they would sell at current prices. This is something not seen since the Covid crash of March 2020:

BTC Historical In/Out of the Money according to IntoTheBlock Bitcoin Indicators.

This indicator that provides the variation of holders’ profits over time also shows the percentage of addresses that would have made money or lost money if they had sold at a particular time. Addresses are classified based on if they are profiting (in the money), breaking even (at the money), or losing money (out of the money). 

Addresses are a good approximation to single investors, although there is always a chance that a small minority of users are using several addresses. If we look at how long the BTC investors have been holding, we can see that the vast majority (26.74M addresses) have been holding BTC for more than a year. A metric with no signs of slowing down so far (blue line): 

BTC Addresses by Time Held according to IntoTheBlock Bitcoin indicators.

This depicts how the amount of BTC holders with a long-term perspective grows despite the recent market turmoil and crypto’s weak price performance. It is quite the opposite for short-term holders (classified as Traders, orange line in the chart): their number increases when significant price movements occur, and speculation fuels the whole ecosystem.

After the worst start of the year for US equities in 83 years, it remains open to question if the current market situation could be presenting an attractive buying opportunity for those looking to the long term. Crypto’s next price moves will undoubtedly be heavily influenced by what US equities do, although so far, at least the majority of BTC holders remain unfazed.

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Altcoins

Zcash [ZEC]: Breaking down the potential effects of the current bearish structure

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Zcash [ZEC]: Breaking down the potential effects of the current bearish structure

As the basis line (green) of the Bollinger Bands (BB) constricted the revival attempts for nearly seven weeks, Zcash [ZEC] bears pulled the altcoin down to yearly lows last week. The basis line has crippled the buyers’ ability to sustain a close near the upper band of the BB.

With the current rising wedge setup being solid, a recovery toward the $113-level could see a slowdown. At press time, ZEC traded at $103.9, down by 2.63% in the last 24 hours.

ZEC Daily Chart

Source: TradingView, ZEC/USDT

Since its multi-month April highs, ZEC bears have persistently steered the price south after propelling an up-channel breakdown. On its way down, the price action underwent strong liquidations whilst the basis line of the BB constricted the bullish comebacks.

Consequently, the alt was down by nearly 67.42% (from 28 Mar) and dropped to hit its 16-month low on 12 May. After the $83-baseline posed some hurdles for the sellers, the bulls quickly provoked a short-term string of green candles. After forming a morning star candlestick pattern, the altcoin continued its oscillation in a bearish rising wedge. 

A continued trajectory in the current pattern could face strong barriers in the $113-zone. This area represented a host of barriers that includes the upper fence of the Pitchfork, the 38.2% Fiboancci resistance. Any reversal from this zone could result in a breakout from the wedge and find testing grounds in the $96-zone. In an unlikely event of invalidating the strong bearish tendencies, any close above the $113-level could test the $126-level.

Rationale

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The Relative Strength Index depicted a gradual uptrend from its oversold lows. As far as the 41-support stood strong, the buyers still had conceivable means to stall the near-term liquidations. But with the -DI line looking north, keeping a check on the selling pressure could be a menacing task for the bulls.

Conclusion

In light of the confluence of multiple hurdles in the $113-zone, ZEC could see a short-term pullback. Any close below the wedge could result in a pathway to its $96-zone lows. To alter the existing narrative, the bulls have to find a spot beyond its Pitchfork and the 38.2% level.

Finally, keeping an eye on Bitcoin’s movement and the broader sentiment would be important to complement the aforementioned analysis.

With a background in financial analysis and reporting, Yash is a full-time journalist at AMBCrypto. He has a keen interest in blockchain technology, with a primary focus on technical analysis of cryptocurrencies.

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Altcoins

Polkadot: Why DOT can be expected to lead the upcoming bull run

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Polkadot: Why DOT can be expected to lead the upcoming bull run

Polkadot’s native cryptocurrency DOT has so far managed to remain on the list of top 20 cryptocurrencies by market cap. The latest market events have forced investors to re-evaluate their portfolios in favor of digital currencies that have strong fundamentals, but does DOT fit these criteria?

Polkadot’s multi-chain approach can provide better insights into whether investors consider DOT to be worth having in their portfolio. It announced that interoperability and multi-chain as the future of blockchains are among the key areas of focus during the WEF22 conference on 16 May.

Polkadot’s ecosystem has been growing rapidly as it continues to onboard more projects through para-chain auctions. While this approach bolsters the interoperability agenda, it also boosts organic demand for DOT from projects running as parachains. The para-chain approach allows the community to support projects that align with Polkado’s values and can provide value to the ecosystem.

DOT’s price action and on-chain metrics 

Although DOT is slated to leverage organic growth as the Polkadot ecosystem continues growing, it is also heavily correlated with Bitcoin. It struggled to maintain a healthy recovery after last week’s market crash in which it bottomed out at $7.30. However, it bounced back to $10.07 at the time of writing.

Source: TradingView

It seems DOT’s recovery is currently limited by low buying volumes. It is currently trading at a 58% discount from its April 2022 top. DOT’s price is also at an 82% discount from its current ATH of $55.09 which it achieved in November 2021.

DOT’s supply held by whales metric registered an uptick between 16 May and 17 May, courtesy of slight accumulation. However, the same metric recorded outflows which have so far pushed back to monthly lows. The metric shows that whales are selling and it reflects the lack of adequate buying volumes and failure to register a significant rally.

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Source: Santiment

DOT’s developer metric achieved a significant uptick and is currently in its highest monthly range. The uptick is due to the recently announced Polkadot which also highlights the network’s commitment to security.

Michael is a full-time journalist at AMBCrypto. He has 5 years of experience in finance and forex and more than two years as a writer in the crypto and blockchain segments. Michael’s writing at AMBCrypto is primarily focused on cryptocurrency market news and technical analysis. His interests include motorcycles and exotic cars.

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