Disclaimer: The findings of the following analysis are the sole opinions of the writer and should not be considered investment advice
The market-wide sentiment boost aided Polkadot’s [DOT] bulls in getting a grip on the near-term trend. The previous month has been relatively hopeful as the alt finds a position near the upper band of the Bollinger Bands (BB).
A breach of the $9.11-mark positioned the coin towards the brighter side of market momentum. However, traders should consider the caveats discussed below before entering positions. At press time, DOT was trading at $9.34, up by 8.7% in the last 24 hours.
DOT Daily Chart
The upturn from the alt’s multi-yearly low on 13 July has reignited the near-term buying pressure. This force helped DOT flip its four-month trendline resistance (yellow, dashed) to support. Also, a rising wedge setup came to fruition as a reflection of increasing buying power.
Also, the BB noted a volatile break as its upper and lower bands kept looking away from each other.
Should the current candlestick reverse from the upper trendline of the rising wedge, DOT could see a near-term setback. In this case, potential targets would lie in the $8.2-zone, just above the basis line of BB.
Traders should watch for a reversal from the immediate resistance range to identify the chances of this near-term drop. On the flip side, an extended bull run could be short-lived by the $9.8-mark resistance.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) saw a breach of the 63-mark while the bulls exerted consistent pressure. Traders could look for a close below this level as a potential trigger for a near-term downside.
However, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) saw lower peaks while the price action marked higher highs. So, any rebound from its immediate resistance could affirm a bearish divergence. Similarly, the Volume Oscillator resonated with the CMF and reiterated the possibility of a bearish divergence.
Given the overbought readings on the BB alongside the rising wedge setup, DOT could see a near-term setback before picking itself up again. The targets would remain the same as discussed above.
However, an overall market sentiment analysis becomes vital to complement the technical factors to make a profitable move.
BNB and BUSD holders, this Binance announcement can affect…
Binance made a major expansion and partnership-related announcements recently. On 3 October, Binance announced that it signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Financial Monitoring Agency of Kazakhstan.
The MoU was signed as part of its ongoing efforts to educate law enforcement agencies around the world. Furthermore, as per the announcement, the company also set up offices in the Brazilian cities of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.
These announcements coupled with recent developments from Binance might impact the dominance of the BUSD and the positive price movement of the Binance Coin [BNB].
Here’s AMBCrypto’s Price Prediction for Binance Coin for 2023-24
Positioning BUSD for dominance
Binance’s BUSD auto-conversion, which converts new deposits of USDC, USDP, and TUSD to BUSD at a 1:1 ratio, was announced on 5 September.
The exchange’s goal in implementing the BUSD auto-conversion was, ostensibly, to boost liquidity, and it was implemented on 29 September.
In terms of market cap, BUSD was now the third largest stablecoin, after USDT and USDC. According to Coinmarketcap, BUSD had a market cap of over $20 billion, with over $6 billion traded in the last 24 hours. In comparison to USDC, this trading volume was significantly higher.
Sideways but bullish
In recent weeks, the BNB price mainly moved sideways. However, following the news on 3 October, there was a rise in price. BNB began trading at $284.7, reached a high of $289.1, and closed at $286.9. As of the time of this writing, it was trading around $290.
On a daily time frame, the $256 area provided strong support, but fresh support appeared to be emerging in the $278 area. The $300 area was acting as resistance for quite some time.
Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showed a bullish trend, with the RSI above the neutral line. The RSI reading above 50 indicated buying pressure was increasing relative to its level at the start of the period.
Based on the data provided by the Awesome Oscillator (AO), it was clear that the bullish trend was not particularly robust.
The plus DI and signal line of the Directional Movement Index (DMI) hovered just above 20, which also indicated a weak bullish trend.
Furthermore, the 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio for BNB was above 18%, which indicated that the asset was in the overvalued zone. In this region, sellers could step in as traders cashed out their gains.
However, developer activity was stagnant at 0.02, which suggested that the chain was not actively developing new features.
It’s to be noted here that Binance also announced on 29 September that it had opened local offices in New Zealand and registered with the Ministry of Business, Innovation, and Employment there.
A-Z of how the BNB Chain fared in September
BNB Chain, home to leading decentralized exchanges PancakeSwap and Venus Protocol, closed Q3 with growth in some of its ecosystem metrics.
According to the decentralized finance (DeFi) analytics platform AnalytEx, BNB Chain recorded growth in its number of daily transactions. It also recorded growth in the number of unique wallet addresses, and daily block count in September.
The Chain, however, registered declines in the gas fees paid to process transactions on the network within the 30-day period. Furthermore, the average size of blocks mined per day on the network continued on its four-month-long decline.
BNB Chain in September
As per data from AnalytEx, a daily average of 3.25 million transactions were completed on the BNB Chain in September. This was a 1.2% growth from the 3.21 million transactions logged as a daily average in August.
With a count of 3.25 million transactions, the index for average daily transactions on BNB Chain in the last quarter fell by 14%. In July, daily average transactions on BNB Chain sat at 3.70 million.
AnalytEx further found that in September, the average number of daily active wallets on BNB Chain grew by 11.48%. According to the DeFi analytics platform, BNB Chain registered an average of 890,253 daily active wallets within the 30-day period.
In August, this stood at 798,559 addresses. While the BNB Chain saw a drop in its daily average transactions in the just concluded quarter, the average number of daily active wallets on the network grew by 2% in the last quarter.
A mixed bag of pros and cons
According to data from CoinGecko, within the period under review, the price per BNB rallied to a high of $297.82 on 12 September, after which it declined by over 5% to close the trading month at $281.
This fall in the price of BNB led to a drop in the gas fees paid for transactions completed on BNB Chain in September.
According to AnalytEx, the average gas fee paid for transactions on BNB Chain was 7.06 gwei, a 2.1% drop from the 7.21 gwei paid in August.
Interestingly, September’s average gas fee represented a decline from what was paid in August. It ranked as the second highest average gas fee paid for transactions on BNB Chain in the last six months.
Lastly, in addition to the decline in the average gas fee on the network, BNB Chain also witnessed a drop in the size of blocks mined per day in September. In fact, the average size of blocks mined on the network witnessed a consistent fall since May.
Can GRT chart a new course after Graph’s new Subgraph milestone
The Graph’s GRT cryptocurrency is arguably one of the poorest performing top cryptocurrencies by market cap.
Its performance has been rather docile in Q3, and at this point, it might need a catalyst to get things going. Recent developments have the potential to breathe life back into the coin in Q4.
Investors that scooped up some GRT since it reached its current bottom range in June are still waiting for a price pump. There were a few bullish attempts within the 3-month period. Unfortunately for the bulls, none of those attempts were enough for a strong breakout, thus, relegating GRT to its bottom range.
GRT’s price action found support just below the $0.100 price range. It hovered within this range for the last few weeks, but are there any prospects of an upcoming change?
Fortunately, the developers behind the projects have maintained healthy development activity. This activity increased significantly towards the end of September.
Some of this development activity may have been focused on increasing the number of subgraphs. The Graph’s latest announcement on Twitter revealed that there are now more than 500 subgraphs on the network. The increase was necessary to make indexing easier for the network to provide indexing services within the WEB3 landscape.
The higher subgraph count represents an important step forward. However, it is not clear whether this might be enough to generate more investors’ excitement. GRT’s 30-day MVRV ratio, at press time, was significantly higher than its lowest 4-week range despite still being in negative territory.
The same metric had a slight uptick in the last two days. This confirms that some buying activity occurred. Moreover, GRT’s velocity metric’s performance in September reflected the subdued nature of the price.
It registered its highest spike at the start of October, thus, confirming an increase in trading activity.
GRT did garner some upside by just over 4% in the last two days despite the velocity spike. This outcome suggested that most investors, especially whales are still on the sidelines waiting for the right time.
Its network growth metric indicated a decline since 22 September. A potential reason why investors’ excitement has not manifested.
GRT has been stuck in the lower range since June and has even broken out of the previous cup-and-handle pattern expectations.
Whether bullish volumes in the short-term would be a reality is still a toss-up but the long-term potential remains strong. This is because there is still a lot of demand for The Graph protocol’s indexing services.
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