Disclaimer: The findings of the following analysis are the sole opinions of the writer and should not be considered investment advice
Avalanche [AVAX] witnessed consistent growth over the last week as it swayed above the 4-hour 20/50/200 EMA. As a result, the altcoin pictured a rising-wedge-like structure, one that retested the $25-mark resistance.
Its recent growth saw an expected hurdle near the Point of Control (POC, red), one that offered the highest liquidity in the near term. A convincing close above the $25-ceiling could open doorways for an extended recovery in the coming sessions. At press time, AVAX was trading at $24.42.
AVAX 4-hour Chart
After plunging to its ten-month low on 19 June, buyers have been exerting constant pressure. This buying resurgence aided AVAX in reclaiming the $20-mark support over the last few days. The altcoin lost more than 26% of its value after breaking down from its previous up-channel on 22 July.
The buyers countered the selling pressure in the $20-zone and pushed the price above the 20/50/200 EMA to reiterate their presence. Thus, the price kept hovering near the upper band of the Bollinger Bands (BB) to reveal a bullish edge.
The bullish crossover on the EMAs has positioned the alt towards a somewhat brighter side. However, the price action approached the $25-level.
With BB’s upper and lower bands looking towards each other, AVAX could look to constrict its volatility in the coming sessions. In this case, the price action could see a range-bound oscillation near the POC.
A robust close above the upper $25-mark could expose the alt to immediate upside. The potential targets in such a case would lie around the $27-$28 range resistance.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) resonated with an ease in buying power while being near the midline. A potential rebound from this level could aid the buyers in holding their immediate grounds on the chart.
Also, recent gains on the chart accompanied lower peaks on the volume oscillator (VO). This hinted at a relatively weak bullish move. Nevertheless, the DMI lines continue to display a bullish edge.
Given the sturdiness of the $25-resistance alongside the declining volumes, AVAX could see a sluggish phase. However, a position above the north-looking EMAs and the POC would aid the buying efforts. Any close above the $25-mark could hint at an entry trigger. The targets would remain the same as discussed above.
Finally, a broader sentiment analysis alongside on-chain developments should be taken into consideration to make a profitable move.
MANA’s network activity could bring forth a shorting opportunity here
Every once in a while, cryptocurrencies go through a phase where volumes contract and prices are restricted within a narrow range. Well, MANA has been stuck in this phase since June. As a consequence, it has struggled to exit its bottom range.
The altcoin has experienced very low whale and institutional activity during the contraction phase. This is often the case when cryptocurrency volumes shrink, and it is a key reason why price movements are quite limited.
MANA’s muted performance was also exasperated by its native platform’s performance. Its transaction volumes dropped substantially in the last four weeks, peaking at 59.57 million on 27 July.
In contrast, it registered its lowest 4-week transaction volume at 3.24 million on 13 August.
The low network activity also reflected in the form of a drop in active addresses.
The latter peaked at 2,611 active addresses on 21 July and dropped to as low as 854 active addresses on 13 August.
Decentraland has been hard at work trying to boost engagement within its network.
The drop in network activity highlighted the need to boost its attractiveness as a metaverse project. Despite its shortfalls, Decentraland’s market cap is currently above $2 billion.
Quite a number of MANA investors are still holding on to their coins. The 180-day mean dollar invested age achieved steady growth in the last four weeks, peaking at 977.23.
There was some profit taking towards the end of June, leading to a drop in the 180-day mean coin age. However, its recovery to its press time level at 72.25 confirms that retail investors have been accumulating, and HODLing.
Why are these observations important?
It is normal for a cryptocurrency to have low volumes when network growth and organic demand are negatively affected.
That may explain the low whales and institutional demand in the last four weeks. However, most of the top coins by market cap have already experienced substantial upside, and no longer have maximum growth potential.
This means MANA will soon end up on the radar of whales and institutions looking for the next best opportunity.
Well, the token is still relatively closer to its bottom than most top coins courtesy of its limited upside.
This means it has a higher growth potential to tap into. Its 90-day MVRV ratio, at press time, was at 14.22% which means some MANA holders who bought at the bottom are already in profit.
However, the numbers are still low compared to some of the best-performing top cryptocurrencies in the last month.
MANA’s heavily discounted price is still a healthy opportunity for long-term holders since metaverse development is still in its early stages.
Ethereum’s metrics that could determine your portfolio value this week
It is not usual for the crypto markets to be dominated by an altcoin. But this seems to be the crypto climate at the moment with Ethereum tearing it apart on the price charts.
The number one altcoin has racked up a slow day in the office but still managed over 12% of profits over the week. On top of that, the 30-day gains have crossed more than 60% for ETH as things stand.
Well, undeniably, the $2K breakout this week raised many eyebrows in the crypto community after the final testnet was accomplished.
The beginning edges closer
However, the ETH storm has calmed down. And, at press time, ETH was hovering below the $2k resistance.
Notably, this has not stopped the social channels from being flooded with talks about Ethereum and especially the Merge.
According to Lunar Crush, Ethereum topped the social activity charts among top cryptocurrencies.
The rapid surge in social activity is visible in the social volume metric of Ethereum. As per the chart below, we can see how Ethereum has regularly maintained a high index value in the past few weeks.
Meanwhile, the interest in the Proof-of-Stake transition continues to attract investors.
According to the analytic firm Glassnode, the total value in the ETH 2.0 contracts reached an all-time high of 13,302,229 ETH on 14 August. This echoes the increasing confidence of the crypto community in Ethereum’s most high-profile upgrade of all time.
Glassnode also claimed that profitability on ETH trading has increased of late.
This is of no surprise since the prices have been on a swing as they rebounded from June’s bottom.
In fact, the MVRV (1d MA) reached a 3-month high of 1.226 on 14 August with the previous similar high observed at 1.225 on 13 August.
Not all is changing
That being said, a group of Ethereum miners will continue to run on the proof of work mechanism. As per IntoTheBlock, the implied valuation of ETHPow at a price of $114 is well over $10 billion.
This group is bound to face some challenges as Chainlink oracles and Circle’s USDC has vowed to support ETHPoW.
However, they have convinced exchanges such as Huobi, Poloniex, and BitMEX to support their ETHPoW token- which is expected to be 6% of the ETH’s value.
ETH looks set to consolidate near the $2,000 resistance at least until the Merge.
Undeniably, it will be under the monitor of the majority of crypto analysts because of the magnitude of the changes promised.
‘Exhausted’ AVAX may not follow the general trend; Instead, here’s what’s up
The first half of August brought good tidings for AVAX holders, as has been the case for most cryptocurrencies. However, the market is now about to enter the second half of the month, with AVAX already showing signs of a potential pullback.
AVAX’s bulls demonstrated strong momentum in the first week of August. However, the second week just concluded with a notable decline in momentum. Any upside over the last few days was also met with some resistance, especially near the $30-price range.
AVAX’s latest performance is not surprising. Especially since this is because the resistance level seemed to be manifesting after it recently retested its ascending support line.
The latter is part of the ascending channel in which AVAX has been trading, after bottoming out near mid-June.
The trend line is not the only sign of a potential retracement. It also turns out that AVAX’s rally briefly pushed it into overbought territory, according to the RSI. In fact, it has been hovering near the overbought zone since, with the bulls attempting to push up further.
These bearish expectations can be backed by a drop in volume ever since AVAX entered its press time resistance zone. This observation seemed to align with the weaker bullish momentum seen over the aforementioned period.
In addition, investor sentiment registered a notable change this past week. This change was picked up by the FTX funding rate, which dropped substantially after hitting a monthly peak last week. This confirmed that investors in the derivatives market are currently less optimistic about the bulls.
AVAX’s weighted sentiment has also dropped slightly since 9 August. A confirmation that the sentiment is no longer predominantly bullish. In fact, at press time, it was in the negative zone, confirming that many investors expect a reversal.
Exploring all possible outcomes?
If the market can maintain its upside, chances are that AVAX might retain its press time range. However, the prevailing sentiment means it might not manage more upside without encountering significant sell pressure.
On the other hand, this is the third time that AVAX is retesting the resistance line. This is confirmation that the press time northbound price channel is growing stronger. In other words, investors should watch out for a potential breakout, especially if the next bullish wave returns with more momentum.
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