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Recent volatility sees Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model breached for the first time

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Recent volatility sees Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model breached for the first time Samuel Wan · 40 seconds ago · 2 min read

Bitcoin breached the lower bound limit of the Stock-to-Flow model on June 18, calling into question the validity of the model.

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Updated: June 20, 2022 at 11:15 am

Cover art/illustration via CryptoSlate

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Self-described Bitcoin maximalist Rob Wolfram has been charting the BTC price against the Stock-to-Flow model.

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In the chart below, the IT security expert explained the dark blue area represents one standard deviation of error from the predicted price per the S2F model. At the same time, the light blue area covers two standard deviations of error from the expected price.

Source: s2f.hamal.nl

However, with recent bearish price action, Bitcoin sunk as low as $17,600 on June 18 and breached the lower bound light blue area for the first time, calling into question the validity of the S2F model.

What is the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model?

The S2F model was created in March 2019 by the anonymous Twitter account @100trillionUSD, also known as Plan B.

The model uses an existing stock-to-flow model initially formulated for use with commodities, such as gold and palladium. The model asserts that it’s possible to predict the price of an asset based on its scarcity over time.

In other words, this model examines the relationship between flow (or mined annual output of tokens) and stock (or tokens in circulation).

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It predicts the price of Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by mid-2024 and $1,000,000 by mid-2025.

Yet by breaching the lower bound limit for the first time, there is documented evidence that the model is invalid.

The limitations of the Stock-to-Flow model

In the past, critics have pointed out several reasons for the model’s limitations. Most pertinent is the assumption that scarcity or supply is the only driver of value. This doesn’t account for other essential price drivers, namely the effect of demand.

Perhaps the most fundamental theory on price is the relationship between demand and supply. In that, when supply exceeds demand, prices will fall. And when demand exceeds supply, prices will rise.

However, the S2F model skips over the influence of demand for Bitcoin while overlooking unexpected events, such as an economic meltdown or Black Swan event.

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Critics say the model lacks scientific rigor by focusing only on scarcity and drawing from a data set spanning just 13 years.

In response to the lower bound breach, Writer and Mining Analyst Zack Voell tweeted that Bitcoin isn’t dead. But continued by saying the S2F has been exposed as a scam.

Bitcoin isn’t dead.

But the Stock-to-Flow scam absolutely is. pic.twitter.com/ZYZ0NR8n92

— Zack Voell (@zackvoell) June 19, 2022

The coming weeks will reveal whether the breach was an outlier or a sign of worse to come.

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Albania To Start Taxing Crypto-Related Income From 2023

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Albania To Start Taxing Crypto-Related Income From 2023

Authorities in Albania are finalizing regulations that will allow the taxation of income and profits from cryptocurrency investments. The government intends to begin imposing the levy in 2023, after adopting the necessary legislation which has been proposed for public consultations.

Albania Set to Impose Crypto Tax as Early as Next Year

The Albanian state should begin collecting taxes on income from crypto assets as of 2023 in accordance with a new income tax bill, the local English-language portal Exit News reported on Friday. The government also hopes to pass a number of other laws and bylaws this year in order to comprehensively regulate the matter.

The special tax legislation is currently open for public consultations. It introduces the concept of taxing crypto holdings and income derived from virtual assets. The latter have been defined as “a digital representation of a value that can be deposited, traded or transferred in digital form, and that can be used for payment or investment purposes or as a medium of exchange, including but not limited to cryptocurrencies.”

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However, the definition does not cover central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), the report notes. That’s despite a growing number of monetary authorities around the world developing a digital version of their national fiats. The list includes major powers such as the United States, the European Union, China, and the Russian Federation.

The Albanian law also defines cryptocurrency mining as an activity using computing power to confirm transactions and gain virtual assets in exchange. The extraction of cryptocurrencies has been a grey area although law enforcement has been going after illegal mining facilities in the country and pressed charges against some of their operators.

Under the new legislation, any income from crypto transactions or mining will be classified as corporate income when it’s received as a result of business activity. And when the beneficiaries are private individuals, they will have to pay capital gains tax of 15%.

Financial Watchdog Tasked to Expand Crypto Regulatory Framework

Earlier this month, the Albanian parliament ordered the Financial Supervisory Authority (AFSA) to prepare and adopt new regulations regarding cryptocurrencies by the end of 2022. Albanian law allows crypto trading platforms to legally work in the country but no licensed entities are currently operating in Albania, Exit News remarked.

Two years ago, Albania also adopted a law titled “Financial markets based on distributed ledger technology.” While many have welcomed the legislation, critics have questioned whether the small nation in South East Europe, still an EU hopeful, is capable of properly regulating its crypto sector to prevent it from being used for money laundering, something it’s struggling to achieve in the fiat space.

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The legislature referenced a recent report by the Council of Europe’s Committee of Experts on the Evaluation of Anti-Money Laundering Measures and the Financing of Terrorism (Moneyval), which recommended additional steps regarding the risks associated with cryptocurrency. In November 2021, the AFSA approved its first two regulations implementing the crypto markets law, which introduced capital and licensing requirements for entities working with digital assets.

Do you expect Albania to adopt comprehensive regulations for its crypto space by the end of the year? Tell us in the comments section below.

Lubomir Tassev

Lubomir Tassev is a journalist from tech-savvy Eastern Europe who likes Hitchens’s quote: “Being a writer is what I am, rather than what I do.” Besides crypto, blockchain and fintech, international politics and economics are two other sources of inspiration.

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Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not a direct offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation or endorsement of any products, services, or companies. Bitcoin.com does not provide investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.

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NHL enters the NFT space partnering with Marketplace Sweet

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NHL enters the NFT space partnering with Marketplace Sweet Abdulrasaq Ariwoola · 42 seconds ago · 1 min read

The NHL partnership with Sweet will offer a variety of digital collectible experiences to its fans, tradable in the marketplace

1 min read

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Updated: June 25, 2022 at 3:59 am

Cover art/illustration via CryptoSlate

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The National Hockey League on Thursday announced its partnership with NFT Marketplace Sweet. This partnership will be the league’s first dive into digital collectibles.

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The partnership, of which the NHL’s players and Alumni’s association are part, will go live in October to mark the start of the 2022-2033 NHL season.

The NHL Marketplace

The NFT marketplace is expected to offer a range of experiences to NHL fans. Including digital collectibles that showcase historical moments, past and present season game highlights, and NHL stars top plays.

The marketplace will also feature gamified collection experiences, specialty packs, and 3D interactive trophy rooms where users can display their collections. Among these offerings there are also dynamic NFTs designed to change based on current team data.

Additionally, fans would be able to buy, sell, collect and trade the collectibles on the marketplace.

However, the announcement did not state which blockchain would host the marketplace.

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NFTs in the sporting space

The NHL  joins a long list of sporting institutions that have embraced digital collectibles.

In 2020, the NBA launched Top Shot NFTs, its digital collectibles marketplace, in partnership with DapperLabs. Likewise, the NFL launched its play and own NFT game while the MLB is to launch its NFT game soon.

However, the extreme sell-off in the crypto market has seen crypto companies pull out of sports deals. This is so as crypto companies strive to stay afloat as the severe sell-off continues in the market.

FTX recently pulled out of a partnership deal with Los Angeles Angels. Similarly, sources suggest a patch deal between NBA Washington Wizards and a crypto company has crashed.

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Brave Group Inc

Japanese Virtual IP Firm Raises $10 Million To Accelerate Metaverse Business

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Japanese Virtual IP Firm Raises $10 Million To Accelerate Metaverse Business

Brave Group Inc., a Japanese virtual IP firm, recently said it had raised $10 million in new capital and that the company expects to use part of these funds to boost its “solution services for clients in the metaverse marketing business.” Taking part in Brave Group’s latest funding round were two local companies, foreign investment funds, as well as individual investors.

Metaverse Market Growth

A Japan-based virtual IP business, Brave Group Inc., recently said it had raised $10 million in new funding, thus bringing the total raised so far to $18 million. The company is set to use the new capital to strengthen its existing business operations and to “expand its solution services for clients in the metaverse marketing business.”

In a recent statement, Brave Group revealed that Japanese companies like Dawn Capital and Osaka Gas Co. Ltd. had participated in the round that also featured “foreign investment funds and individual investors.” In remarks following the announcement of the capital raise, Kazuhiro Ishikura, a general partner at Dawn Capital, said:

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As the boundary between real and virtual life disappears, the form of entertainment will also change, and new IP content KOLs are expected to be born. As the metaverse market grows globally, we believe that the Brave group’s content will be at the center of the enthusiastic virtual communities that will emerge. We hope that the strength of the anime and manga culture that Japan has cultivated over the years will be brought to the world virtually.

Yuichi Sakamoto, senior general manager with Osaka Gas’ innovation department, is quoted stating his company is ready to help Brave Group Inc. “realize lifestyles and businesses that respond to the New Normal.”

For his part, the CEO of Brave Group Inc., Keito Noguchi, said through the $10 million fundraise, his company would now “maximize the impact of Brave group’s IP not only in Japan but also in the world.”

What are your thoughts on this story? Let us know what you think in the comments section below.

Terence Zimwara

Terence Zimwara is a Zimbabwe award-winning journalist, author and writer. He has written extensively about the economic troubles of some African countries as well as how digital currencies can provide Africans with an escape route.

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Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not a direct offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation or endorsement of any products, services, or companies. Bitcoin.com does not provide investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.

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